All state of Brazil expecting lower soybean yields

Dry weather in Brazil is a continue crop concern of the market. However, some improvement witnessed over the weekend. weather in central Brazil was finally the type of weather you generally expect for this time of the year. In Mato Grosso for example, there was heavy overcast and it rained most of the day on Sunday for a total of 2-4 inches. The weather was similar in Goias, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, northern Minas Gerais, and western Bahia.

But prior to the weekend, the weather in Brazil was more of the same, scattered showers with uneven distribution. The temperatures have also been very hot. For example, the city of Sao Paulo is on track to having the hottest January in 76 years. In the city of Campo Grande, which is the capital of Mato Grosso do Sul, a thunderstorm last Thursday afternoon broke a three. day heat wave where the temperatures were over 104°F for three straight days. This is the type of whether they have been experiencing in central Brazil, prior to this past weekend.

After a few days of rainy weather, the forecast is calling for a return of dryer than normal conditions across central and southern Brazil. The rainfall was certainly beneficial, but the forecast looks like a return of the previous pattern – hotter than normal and dryer than normal. Generally, the biggest weather problem for soybeans in central Brazil during January is too much rainfall as farmers start to harvest their early maturing soybeans. That has not been the case this year and in fact, the soybean harvest is progressing about two weeks ahead of the average pace in central Brazil. The weekend rains will only delay the soybean harvest for a couple of days. as per the private reports that 13% of the Brazilian soybeans had been harvested compared to 4% last year and 3% for the 5-year average. The fastest harvest pace is in Mato Grosso where 29% of the soybeans have been harvested followed by Parana with 18%, Goias with 14% and Mato Grosso do Sul with 8%.  also indicated that they expect to lower their soybean production estimate during the first week of February. Their last estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop was 116.9 million tons on January 9th.

The soybean harvest in Brazil is running about two weeks ahead of normal, an, as a result, estimate that the crop could hit as much as 50% harvested by maybe February 15th. If widespread rainfall returns to central Brazil, it could slow down the soybean harvest.