NCDEX Jan soybean at fresh 3-year high on crop woes

The January delivery soybean contract on NCDEX hit a fresh three-year high of 4,228 rupees per 100 kg on NCDEX following concerns over crop and strong demand from crushers.

Soybean crop is seen lower than farm ministry’s estimates of 13.5 mln tn for 2019-20 (Jul-Jun).

Front month bean futures closed the report day with 2 1/4 to 3 cent gains. Jan Futures have shown a green candle for the 6th straight day. Soybean meal futures gained 10 cents per ton, while soybean oil futures were up 18 points.

WASDE reported 19/20 carryout was UNCH at 475 mbu. USDA did reduce the expected cash average price for this year to $8.85 from $9.00. As for the world bean numbers, Brazil production was also firm, forecasted again at a record 123 MMT.

Soybean production from CONAB was up ~200,000 mo/mo, AT 121.1 MMT. Argentina was UNCH from November’s estimate at 53 MMT.

The USDA estimates 2019/20 world bean ending stocks at 96.4 MMT, which is up from last month. China’s National Bureau of Labor Statistics reported soybean production at 18.1 MMT, following a reported 11% uptick in area planted.

USDA adopted that increase, and boosted expected Chinese ending stocks by the same 1 MMT. World soybean ending stocks were the lowest since 17/18, pre trade war.