Soybean futures on NCDEX continued to rise owing to concerns about a smaller crop this year, and firm demand ahead of festivals. The contracts touched the 3% upper circuit on Wednesday, as output is expected to be much lower than the government’s estimate.

Soybean prices on NCDEX rose nearly 6% in the last three sessions. In the benchmark market of Indore, the oilseed was sold at 3,875 rupees per 100 kg, 35 rupees higher than Wednesday despite a rise in arrivals, owing to good demand from oil millers. Arrivals were pegged at 4,000 bags, nearly 1,500 higher than the previous day.

Damage to the crop was earlier reported in Madhya Pradesh, the largest grower of soybean, after heavy rains in the region. Moisture content in the new crop is declining gradually, with 33 bags of fresh soybean fetching an attractive price of 3,200 rupees per 100 kg. Fresh soybean of good quality is expected to arrive in the next two weeks.

Soybeans futures settled the Thursday session with fractionally mixed trade in the front months. Lower product value provided pressure. Soybean meal was down $2.40/ton, with soy oil 3 points lower.

USDA reported a private export sale of 257,000 MT for 19/20 deliver to China this morning. That brings the 2-day total to 838,000 MT (30.8 million bushels), with Monday’s rumor pegging 600,000 MT in purchases.

Weekly data indicated a total of 1.038 MMT in 19/20 sales for the week that ended on Sep 19. That was down 39.9% from last week but still 19.2% above a year ago.

Chinese purchases were listed at 391,391 MT in that week. Chinese purchase commitments are above last year at 2.055 MMT, but the second lowest since 05/06.

Soy meal sales were tallied at 164,340 MT, with soy oil at 34,508 MT. Updated estimates from IGC show a 3 MMT reduction to world ending stocks at 38 MMT on lower production and increased use.