NCDEX soybean up on firm demand, low crop view

Futures contracts of soybean rose on the NCDEX tracking spot prices where firm demand from stockists and low output view pushed prices higher. The most-active January contract on the NCDEX was up 0.6% at 4,124 rupees per 100 kg.

Rains during September in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, are likely to have damaged nearly 40-50% of standing crop. In Indore, the benchmark market, soybean prices were up 25 rupees at 4,000 rupees per 100 kg. Arrivals were pegged at around 4,500 bags (1 bag = 100 kg).

Soybean futures were down by as much as 6 1/4 cents after Monday trading. Soybean meal was $0.40/ton higher, and bean oil was down by 48 points. The CAIR Grain Crushing monthly report showed that October bean usage was up mo/mo to 187.165 mbu. That was the highest oilseed crush for a single month going back to May of 2015, with the previous record being December of last year with 18.757 mbu. Crude bean oil on hand by the last Saturday of October was 71.360 million lbs. above September.

USDA’s weekly update indicated soybean harvest is now 96% completed. The report showed soybean harvest progressed 2 percentage points wk/wk. The USDA’s weekly export inspections showed that, for the week ending 11/28, there were 1.548 MMT of beans shipped. Last week was 1.952 MMT, and the same week last year saw only 1.046 MMT shipped. China was the destination for 1.090 MMT (70.46%). The accumulated shipments were updated to 15.942 MMT vs. 13.258 MMT at this point last year.

The Commitment of Traders report from this afternoon revealed that managed money had flipped positions and were net short soybean futures as of 11/26. That was the first Tuesday in which managed money had been net short since Oct. 1st. The big spec funds were also net short Bean meal, strengthening the position by another 12,748 contracts wk/wk. Managed money types were still net long Bean oil per CFTC, with managed money staying net long for 11 straight weeks.