Soybean contracts on National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange are seen trading in a “range bound to weak note” in June weighed by weak demand and a downtrend in parent contracts on Chicago Board of Trade.
Prices of the oilseed may fall to 3,530-3,485 rupees per 100 kg from the current level of 3,698 rupees. Expectation of a normal monsoon, higher kharif acreage this season, and appreciation in the rupee against the dollar will also weigh on prices.
The India Meteorological Department today maintained its forecast for southwest monsoon rains at 96% of the long-period average. The weather bureau has also forecast that rainfall is likely to be 95% of the long-period average in July and 99% in August.
Soybean futures ended the session with 10 to 11 1/4 cent losses, as July rose 5.78% this week. July soy meal was down $6.10/ton but up 6.92% since last Friday, with soybean oil 19 points lower.
Managed money spec traders in soybean futures and options were still net short 129,994 contracts as of May 28, a reduction of 23,137 contracts from that position on the week. The weekly Export Sales report, delayed due to Monday’s holiday, showed 455,770 MT in old crop soybean export sales, slightly higher than estimates.
That was down 14.9% from last week but 66.7% larger than the same week last year. Of that total 135,690 MT was sold to China, with a majority switched from previous unknown destinations sales. New crop sales totaled 22,000 MT. Meal sales were tallied at 248,802 MT, with soy oil at 35,120 MT.
Monday’s monthly Fats & Oils report is expected to show April Soybean crush at 170 mbu. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s soybean harvest at 90.7% complete, above the 83.4% average.