Oilseeds

Govt may declare 100-bln-rupee scheme for oilseed farmers.

India’s vegetable oil imports will rise to 25 million tonne in 2030 from 15.5 million tonne in 2017 due to increasing demand and stagnant supply. India is the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer. More than 70% of India’s edible oil demand is met from imports. Rabobank estimates Indian vegetable oil demand to grow significantly with a CAGR of 3% to exceed 34 million tonne by 2030, with the per capita consumption pegged at 24 kg in 2030, due to rising disposable income and population growth. Domestic oil seed production growth can’t keep up with rising demand. Rising demand and stagnant domestic vegetable oil supply ,which has been range bound between 6.5 million tonne and 8.5 million tonne in the past decade ,will push India’s vegetable oil imports to over 25 million tonne by 2030.

According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India’s May edible oil imports fell 5.89 percent y-o-y to 12.46 lakh tons from 13.24 lakh tons in May 2017. Palm oil imports in May fell 37.7 percent y-o-y to 4.97 lakh tons from 7.98 lakh tons in May 2017. CPO Imports fell 32.5 percent y-o-y to 3.32 lakh tons from 4.92 lakh tons in May 2017. RBD palmolein imports fell 46.26 percent y-o-y to 1.58 lakh tons from 2.94 lakh tons in May 2017. Soy oil imports rose 16.76 percent in May y-o-y to 3.97 lakh tons from 3.40 lakh tons in May 2017. Sunflower oil imports rose 113.5 percent y-o-y in May to 3.31 lakh tons from 1.55 lakh tons in May 2017. Rapeseed (canola) oil import fell to 24.14 percent 0.22 lakh tons compared 0.29 imports in May 2017.

Import duty on crude soy oil was hiked from 30% to 35% while on refined soy oil it was hiked to 45% from 35%. Import duty on crude sunflower oil was hiked to 35% from 25% and on refined sunflower oil was hiked to 45% from 35%. Import duty on crude rapeseed oil was hiked to 35% from 25% and on refined repeseed oil was hiked to 45% from 35%.

According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India’s May edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 13.86 percent m-o-m to 26.62 lakh tons from 23.38 lakh tons in April 2018. Stocks of edible oil at ports rose to 1,002,000 tons (CPO 320,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 170,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 230,000 tons, Crude Sunflower Oil 270,000 tons and 12,000 tons of Rapeseed (Canola) Oil) and about 1,660,000 tons in pipelines. (Stocks at ports were 1,068,000 tons in April 2018). India is presently holding 42 days of edible oil requirement on 1st June, 2018 at 26.62 lakh tons compared to 37 days of requirements last month at 23.38 lakh tons. India’s monthly edible oil requirement is 19.0 lakh tons.

Edible oil stocks equivalent to 42 days, against norm of 30 days requirement is putting pressure on prices: SEA. The stock of edible oils as on 1st June, 2018 at various ports is estimated at 1,002,000 tons (CPO 320,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 170,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 230,000 tons, Crude Sunflower Oil 270,000 tons and 12,000 tons of Rapeseed (Canola) Oil) and about 1,660,000 tons in pipelines. Total stock at ports and in pipelines is reported at 2,662,000 tons, increased by 324,000 tons from 2,338,000 tons in May 2018. India’s total demand for edible oils during 2017-18 is estimated at 23 lakh tons. Monthly requirement is about 19.00 lakh tons and operate at 30 days stock against which currently holding stock over 26.62 lakh tons equal to 42 days requirements. This is the ever highest stock putting pressure on domestic prices of edible oils.

India is considering raising import tax on some edible oils. India, the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer, currently levies 30 percent import tax on soyoil and 25 percent each on rapeseed and sunflower oils.

Agribusiness major Cargill resumed normal operations at two of its grain crushing plants in Argentina after suspending operations on April 20 as oilseed crushing workers undertook a series of strike actions.

The Egyptian state buyer GASC purchased 29.5 KMT of sunflower oil and 28.2 KMT soybean oil in a tender held on April 26, 2018. the sunflower oil was bought from Aston (11.5 KMT) and ADM (18 KMT) at a price of USD 816.5/MT. The soybean oil was bought from Alex Co (13.2 KMT) and Cargill (15 KMT) at a price of USD 781.5/MT. The delivery period is July 1-15, 2018.

The Statistics Committee of the National Economy Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan reports that oilseed inventories totaled 904.3 KMT on April 1, 2018, i.e. almost 18% (136 KMT) more than a year ago (768.3 KMT on April 1, 2017). A rise was registered in stocks of all staple oilseeds. So, sunseed availabilities were up 6% (20.3 KMT) year-on-year at 372.5 KMT, linseed stocks were up 25% (58.1 KMT) at 286.8 KMT, soybean stocks grew by 1.4% (1 KMT) to 74 KMT, rapeseed ones gained 86% (60.5 KMT) and totaled 130.5 KMT.

Futures contracts of most components of edible oil basket, barring mustard, are likely to trade higher on the domestic exchanges over the next five sessions. Soybean contracts on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange are seen rising due to hope a of rise in demand from China and shrinking supply in spot market.

Egypt’s state buyer GASC has issued a tender to purchase 10 KMT of sunflower oil and 30 KMT of soybean oil. The soybean oil is to be delivered between 1-15 June, 2018, the sunflower oil – between 15-30 June, 2018.

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2017/18 include increased crush, lower seed and residual use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is projected at a record 1,970 million bushels, up 10 million reflecting higher soybean meal prices which are supporting crush margins. Seed use is reduced in line with the plantings indicated in the March 29 Prospective Plantings report. With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 5 million. Soybean oil changes include increased production, exports, and ending stocks. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is reduced this month reflecting lower-than-expected use through the first four months of the marketing year. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.10 to $9.50, unchanged at the midpoint. The soybean oil price is projected at 30.5 to 32.5 cents per pound, also unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $340 to $360 per short ton, up $10.00 at the midpoint. The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is lowered 5.7 million tons to 568.8 million, with a 6.1-million-ton reduction for soybean production and slightly higher projections for rapeseed, sunflower seed, copra, and palm kernel. Lower soybean production for Argentina, India, and Uruguay is partly offset by higher production for Brazil. Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at record 115.0 million tons, up 2.0 million on higher projected yields for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana due to beneficial rainfall during the growing season. For Argentina, production is lowered 7.0 million tons to 40.0 million on reduced harvested area and yield, reflecting dry conditions during January through March. With reduced production, soybean crush for Argentina is lowered 1.8 million tons to 41.2 million, resulting in lower soybean meal and oil supplies traded globally. Other oilseed production changes include reduced sunflower and peanut production for Argentina, higher sunflower seed production for the European Union, and increased rapeseed production for Belarus. Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 174.1 million tons, down 0.6 million on lower soybean, peanut, and rapeseed shipments. Soybean exports are reduced 0.2 million tons as higher exports for Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine are offset by lower exports for Argentina and Uruguay. Peanut and rapeseed exports are lowered for Senegal and the European Union, respectively. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6 million tons to 90.8 million with reductions mainly for Argentina, Brazil, and the EU.

Futures contracts of components of edible oil basket on domestic exchanges are likely to tick lower in the next five sessions primarily due to China’s decision to impose 25% tariff on import of oilseed from the US. China is the largest consumer of US soybean.

The USDA raised the forecast for 2017/18 oilseed production in the Black Sea region. The figure for Kazakhstan’s sunseed crop was adjusted upwards to 903 KMT (+153 KMT), while that for Russian production was cut to 10,362 KMT (-138 KMT). Consequently, the total Black Sea crop ended up slightly higher than in the previous forecast, at 26,515 KMT (+15 KMT). The total soybean crop was increased to 7,596 KMT at the expense of a 121 KMT gain in Russian production (3,621 KMT). The USDA predicts the Black Sea rapeseed crop to total 4,393 KMT (+51 KMT). A substantial crop increase is envisaged in Kazakhstan: up 54 KMT at 279 KMT.

The base import price of three edible oils was increased by $1 per tn. The base import price of refined, bleached deodorised palm oil and crude palm oil was raised by $4 per tn, and $2 per tn respectively. The base import price of crude palm oil was increased to $689 per tn, and that of soyoil to $815 per tn. Based on global prices and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates, the government revises base import prices every fortnight.

Turkey’s oilseed production is expected to rise 4% in 2018-19 to 3.06 million tonnes as good returns on cotton and sunflowerseeds are affecting farmers’ planting decisions. Cottonseed production is expected to rise by 8% and sunflowerseed by 2%, while soybean output is expected to remain steady. Total imports of soybeans and soybean meal are expected to reach 3.2 million tonnes in 2017-18.

Russian growers held 2573 KMT of oilseeds as of February 1, 2018, i.e. 11 KMT (0.4%) less than on the same date last year (2573 KMT). The oilseed inventories decreased by 250 KMT in January. The farming entities held 1490 KMT of sunseed that is down 133 KMT (8.2%) from February 1, 2017 (1620 KMT). Its stocks fell by 130 KMT in January.