The crop increase numbers have largely come in from Karnataka and parts of MP, we should be closing this year sowing numbers at about current 7.8 Myn hectares versus last year number of 8.05 Myn hectares. Time for sowing is already done. The market expects an early crop, but its too early to comment on the same looking at the current weather pattern.
Market Prices :-
We hear AP Tender is likely to be awarded on the bid prices to the highest bidder and Telangana tender is likely to be awarded to the poultry association at a pre agreed price, what that price is, we will come to know when the deal is finalised. The rainfall in Maharashtra is making the logistics challenging and price have moved higher by 10-20/- qtl in last 3-4 days. The impact of tender cargo will be felt once the release mechanism is set in motion and next round of tenders are announced. Quality of the cargo is getting deteriorated on daily basis in Bihar/WB and Bangladesh demand is also lacklustre at the moment. Destination market prices are as below
Tamil Nadu :- Rake 1390- 1400, Trucks 1450-1500
Bangalore :- Rake 1360-80, Trucks 1450-1480
Hyderabad :- trucks 1480-1520.
Ahmedabad :- 1300-1325/1390 (super quality cargo buying)
Bihar :- 1100-1120 Rake point, 1200-1220 warehouse.
North :- 1280-1300 UP cargo for Haryana/Punjab
Sangli : -1400
With all the above information it looks like prices are not going to move up and new crop should be trading at a significant discount, but the whole game is in the hands of farmer who have become resilient to the lower prices market and does not seem to take interest (in selling cargo) unless prices are higher or some sort of government Intervention is promised/delivered.
Deliveries for the month of Aug are at 290 MT till14th Aug, we will have more deliveries as we move ahead, we have a total of more than 800 Mt in the exchange warehouse. Sep month is trading at 1305, 6/- qtl higher, with an open interest of 470 Mt.
International Market :-
Cbot dec contract is trading at 341 cents/bushel trading on news on crop losses in the US. Bangladesh demand for Indian corn is flat at the moment. The report analysis by our US team is enclosed herewith.
Disclaimer :- The prices mentioned in the report are per market sources and should not be considered as an offer to buy/sell cargo. Also the point of view expressed are personal.