Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2019 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be NORMAL (96% to 104% of long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.
Region wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 94% of LPA over North-West India, 100% of LPA over Central India, 97% of LPA over South Peninsula and 91% of LPA over NorthEast India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 95% of its LPA during July and 99% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %.
The current weak El Niño conditions over Pacific are likely to continue during the monsoon season with some possibility of these conditions to turn to neutral ENSO conditions during the latter part of the monsoon season.
IMD will issue a forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season at the end of July 2019.
Source – IMD