Australia was expected to produce 19.1 million mt of wheat in the 2018-19 (October-September) season, down 10% from 21.2 million mt in 2017/18. The decline in estimate is primarily attributed to reduced crop prospects from exceptionally unfavourable seasonal conditions in Queensland, New South Wales and parts of Victoria and South Australia. In New South Wales, the well below average rainfall during the planting window resulted in much less area planted to winter crops than was initially intended. As a result, wheat production is forecast to fall by 44% to 2.5 million mt in 2018-19.In Queensland, the dry conditions and low levels of soil moisture reduced potential yields with wheat production forecasted to be around 525,000 mt, down 23% from the previous harvest. South Australian wheat production is forecasted to fall by 10% to 3.7 million mt due to 13% decline in average yield. Timely rainfall in early spring will be critical to ongoing crop development in many cropping regions in eastern states (including South Australia) because of low levels of soil moisture.