CANADA CORN OCTOBER OUTLOOK:

For 2017-18, seeded area increased by 8% from 2016-17 to the second highest all-time level. Carry-in stocks are slightly lower-than last year but production is forecast to increase by 8% to a record 14.3 Mt due to the higher area and an above average total yield. Imports are forecast to decrease by 34% due to the higher domestic supply. Total supply is forecast to increase by 5% to a record 17.1 Mt. Total domestic usage is forecast to increase by marginally due to trend increases in feeding, ethanol production and other industrial use such as starch. Exports are forecast to increase by 15% due to the higher Canadian total supply, lower world corn supply and continuing demand from the western EU region. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 19% to a record level of 2.6 Mt. The nearby Chatham corn price is forecast to increase slightly due to higher US corn futures although an offsetting strengthening of the Canadian dollar will limit the upside. The average Canadian corn yield, estimated to be higher than the previous five-year average, is the second highest on record. Yields in Eastern Canada are better-than expected given the cool, wet weather conditions during the summer months. Eastern Canada received its warmest temperatures of the growing season in the last half of September and this allowed the crop to progress, making up for lost time. Fall weather forecasts are looking favourable for the corn harvest in Eastern Canada as temperature and rainfall are forecast to be normal to above. The US corn futures market has been range bound since mid-August as varying weather and yield forecasts have not shown any definitive direction. Despite being 32% higher than last year at this time, the US corn stocks are slightly lower-than expected which was mildly bullish for the US corn futures prices. US corn stocks are now the highest they have been in nearly 30 years. With a second year of good corn crops, Argentina remains the world corn price leader and the world corn market has softened, with the weaker US dollar, to its lowest level since the fall of 2009. Most forecasts are for lower world corn production and ending stocks for 2017-18. However, the upside price potential is limited because the supply of most grains/oilseeds are higher than average.