CANADA LENTILS MOTHLY OUTLOOK:

Lentils For 2017-18, Exports are forecast to fall sharply to 1.3 Mt. India, Turkey and United Arab Emirates are currently the top three export markets. Through August to January of this crop year, Canadian lentil exports total over 0.7 Mt, down 56% from this same period in 2016-17. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to high levels. The overall average price is forecast to fall sharply due to large carry-out stocks. During the month of February, the on-farm price of large green lentils was unchanged and the price of red lentils fell by C$5/t in Saskatchewan. This was largely due to expectations of a large increase in pulse production for the winter crop in India. Large green lentil prices are forecast to maintain a $375/t premium over red lentil prices, below the record premium from 2016-17.For 2017-18, US lentil production, mostly green types, is estimated by the USDA at 0.34 Mt, down 42% from 2016-17. As a result, Canadian lentil exports to the US to-date (August to January) are higher than last year at this time. For 2018-19, area seeded in Canada is expected to fall to 1.3 Mha, due to lower returns relative to other crops. A higher yield is forecast but production is still expected to fall by 22% to 2.0 Mt. However, supply is expected to rise marginally to 3.1 Mt with large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher at 1.8 Mt as markets adjust to the lack of export demand from India. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to decrease from 2017-18 with the assumption of an average grade distribution and discounts for lower grades.