For 2016-17, exports are forecast to fall by 9% from 2015-16 to 15.6 Mt. The export forecast includes some exports (0.63 Mt) to the US, which are not included in the CGC weekly export data, and flour exports of 0.29 Mt. Total Canadian food (milling) and industrial use of wheat is expected to be the same as for 2015-16, with 2.6 Mt used for milling and 0.7 Mt for industrial purposes. Total feed, waste and dockage, which is calculated residually, is expected to increase because of the higher supply of low quality wheat in Western Canada and higher production of wheat in Ontario. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 5% to 4.3 Mt, 22% lower than the past five-year average of 5.5 Mt. World all wheat (including durum) production increased by 18 Mt to a record 755 Mt. Supply rose by 43 Mt to 998 Mt. Total use increased by 27 Mt to 739 Mt. Carry-out stocks rose by 16 Mt to 259 Mt. All wheat production in the US rose by 6.7 Mt to 62.9 Mt. Supply increased by 12.9 Mt to 92.6 Mt. Domestic use fell by 0.2 Mt and exports increased by 7.5 Mt. Carry-out stocks rose by 5.7 Mt to 32.2 Mt. The average crop year producer price in Canada for the base grade wheat, 1 CWRS 13.5 protein, increased from 2015-16 because of the limited supply of high grade, high protein wheat and strong demand for that quality of wheat in world markets. However, prices for lower protein and lower grade wheat declined because of higher US and world supply. For 2017-18, area seeded in Canada rose by 1% as a 2% increase in spring wheat area more-than offset a 10% decrease in the area seeded to winter wheat, according to Statistics Canada. Canada Western Hard Red spring wheat (CWRS) accounts for nearly all of the increase for spring wheat. This premium quality hard wheat is projected to account for 80% of the total Canadian wheat seeded area, up from 76% for 2016-17. There was a small area increase for other spring wheat (Canada Northern Hard Red and Canada Western Special Purpose classes) and for eastern spring wheat (hard red), while the areas for Canada Prairie Spring, Soft White Spring and Extra Strong wheat classes fell. Production of wheat is forecast to decrease by 7% to 22.3 Mt because of a return to trend yields from the higher than normal yields in 2016-17. In addition, yields in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to be below trend due to low precipitation. Production is expected to decline for all classes of wheat. The production forecast for spring wheat is 0.5 Mt lower than the July forecast because of declining crop conditions in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta due to low precipitation. However, the winter wheat production forecast is 0.1 Mt higher due to slightly higher than trend yields, which resulted in an overall decline in wheat production of 0.4 Mt. Supply is expected to fall by 5% as higher carry-in stocks partly offset the fall in production. Exports are forecast to increase by 3% due to stronger demand for hard red spring wheat from the US. However, wheat exports will be limited by the lower supply. Total domestic use is forecast to decrease with stable food and industrial uses and lower feed, waste and dockage, assuming a return to normal quality in Western Canada. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 19% to 3.5 Mt. The current carry-out stocks forecast is 0.3 Mt lower than in the July report because of lower production. World all wheat (including durum) production is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 12 Mt to 743 Mt. Supply is forecast to grow by 4 Mt to 1,002 Mt, as lower production is more than offset by higher carry in stocks. Total use is forecast to decrease by 2 Mt to 735 Mt as higher food use is more than offset by lower feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 4 Mt to 265 Mt. However, China accounts for 128 Mt of the stocks, an increase of 16 Mt from 2016-17. Wheat stocks in China are generally not exported. Excluding China, world all wheat carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 137 Mt from 147 Mt for 2016-17. According to USDA, US all wheat production is forecast to fall by 15.5 Mt to 47.3 Mt as the lower seeded area is compounded by higher abandonment and lower yields. By class, production is expected to fall by 30% for hard red winter wheat, by 26% for hard red spring wheat, 11% for soft red spring and 9% for white wheat. Supply is forecast to decrease by 9 Mt to 83.6 Mt. Domestic use is forecast to rise by 0.1 Mt and exports are forecast to decrease by 2.2 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 6.8 Mt to 25.4 Mt. The average crop year producer price in Canada for wheat is forecast to increase from 2016-17 due to the lower US and Canadian wheat supply.