For 2017-18, production of wheat is estimated to decrease by 5% to 22.8 Mt according to Statistics Canada’s second production estimate, as the 1% increase in seeded area was more than offset by lower yields. The lower yields are due to a return to trend yields in most of Canada from the record yields in 2016-17, and below trend yields in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta because of low precipitation. The second production estimate was 1.2 Mt higher than the first as yields were better than was expected before the harvest started. Production estimates by province, with values for 2016-17 in brackets, are: Alberta 8,595 kt (8,314 kt), Saskatchewan 7,675 kt (8,371 kt), Manitoba 3,849 kt (4,217 kt), Ontario 2,267 kt (2,542 kt), Quebec 313 kt (310 kt), and other provinces 132 kt (213 kt). Production estimates by class of wheat, with 2016-17 production in brackets, are: winter (hard red, soft red and white) 2,755 kt (3,513 kt), Canada Western (Hard) Red Spring (CWRS) 17,126 (16,669 kt), Canada Eastern (Hard) Red Spring 444 kt (434 kt), Canada Prairie Spring 1,255 kt (1,720 kt), Canada Western Extra Strong 215 kt (278 kt), Canada Western Soft White Spring 630 kt (895 kt) and other spring wheat (Canada Northern Hard Red and Canada Western Special Purpose) 406 kt (457 kt). Production of the premium quality CWRS wheat is estimated to account for 75% of total wheat production, compared to 70% for 2016-17. Supply is estimated to fall by 1% as higher carry-in stocks mostly offset the fall in production. Exports are forecast to increase by 4% to 16.3 Mt because of increased supply of high quality hard red spring wheat and strong demand for that class of wheat in world markets, especially from the US. The forecast for exports is 0.3 Mt higher than in the September report because of the increased production estimate from Statistics Canada. Domestic food use is forecast to increase slightly to 2.6 Mt while industrial use decreases slightly to 0.7 Mt. Feed, waste and dockage is expected to be similar to 2016-17. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 20% to 4 Mt, 28% lower than the past five-year average of 5.57 MT. World all wheat (including durum) production is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 3 MT to 751 Mt. Supply is forecast to grow by 12 Mt to 1,008 Mt, as lower production is more than offset by higher carry-in stocks. Total use is forecast to increase by 1 Mt to 740 MT. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 11 Mt to 268 Mt. However, China accounts for 127 Mt of the stocks, an increase of 16 Mt from 2016-17. Wheat stocks in China are generally not exported. Excluding China, world all wheat carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 141Mt from 145 Mt for 2016-17. All wheat production in the US is estimated by the USDA to decrease by 15.4 Mt to 47.4 Mt as lower seeded area is compounded by higher abandonment and lower yields. By class, production is estimated to fall by 31% for hard red winter wheat, 22% for hard red spring wheat, 15% for soft red winter and 96% for white wheat. Supply is estimated to decrease by 9 Mt to 83.6 Mt. Domestic use is forecast to fall by 0.8 MT and exports are forecast to decrease by 2.2 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 6 Mt to 26.1 Mt. The average crop year producer price in Canada for wheat is forecast to increase from 2016-17 due to the lower US and Canadian wheat supply. However, the price gains will be limited by the stronger Canadian dollar.