Currently, Unjha is experiencing a daily influx of 4,000 to 5,000 sacks of cumin. Prices have fluctuated significantly, with the minimum price being $0.25 per kg, rising to $0.37 per kg, and now stabilizing around $0.30 per kg. Future projections suggest that prices could increase to $0.33-$0.34 per kg in the near term.

The current market shows weak export demand for cumin while local demand is moderately improving. An increase in local demand is expected after August 10, which may drive prices up by $0.18-$0.24 per kg. Export demand remains minimal, particularly from Bangladesh and the Gulf countries, largely due to new supplies arriving from China.

Initially, China’s cumin production was estimated at 100,000 tons, but revised figures now suggest a lower yield of 40,000-50,000 tons, consistent with last year. The price parity between Chinese and Indian cumin, both around $3.15 per kg, discourages imports as China becomes a significant stockist. India’s competitively priced cumin further reduces the likelihood of imports.

The Indian market has received approximately 6.0 to 6.5 million bags of cumin, with an additional 4.0 million bags expected. Monthly exports range from 0.15 to 0.2 million bags, while domestic consumption is between 0.25 and 0.30 million bags. With the new cumin season still eight months away, India will need at least 3.0 million more bags. Carry-forward stock is projected to be between 1.5 and 2.0 million bags. Last year, India exported 2.8 to 3.0 million bags of cumin. This year, 2.8 million bags have already been exported, with total exports expected to exceed 0.2 million tonnes, up from 0.16 million tonnes last year.

According to Sumerchand Jain, cumin prices are likely to decrease by $0.12-$0.18 per kg. The Rajasthan market is currently receiving around 7,000 sacks daily, and the supply is outpacing demand, suggesting a potential price drop. Farmers and traders are holding substantial stocks, and export inquiries are limited. If prices remain low, farmers may withhold sales, which could lead to a possible, though unsustainable, price increase.

Source: Commodity Board