The global cumin market is currently experiencing a period of price stability, particularly for Indian cumin, thanks to a balanced relationship between supply and demand. Presently, approximately 10,000 to 12,000 bags of cumin are being sold daily, ensuring that prices remain steady.

However, demand from major importing nations, notably Bangladesh and China, has seen a dip. Specifically, China is displaying decreased interest in Indian cumin, with buyers indicating that they plan to hold off on significant purchases until they reduce their existing inventories, likely postponing buying activities until around November or December.

Despite the lull in demand, the supply-demand dynamic is keeping pricing in check. It is believed that provided there are no drastic changes in cumin sowing activities, prices will likely remain stable until November. Sowing in Rajasthan, a key region for cumin cultivation, is slated to start after the Diwali festival, with recent favorable weather contributing to optimistic expectations for the upcoming season.

In a positive turn for the Indian cumin market, exports are projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting that 225,000 tonne will be shipped this year — an increase of 45,000 tonne from last year’s 180,000 tonne. This growth is attributed to competitive pricing, which has positioned India more favorably in the global market. Major export destinations, including Brazil, Mexico, and the United States, continue to show strong demand for high-quality cumin. In contrast, Chinese cumin production is expected to drop to 40,000 tonne, enhancing the attractiveness of Indian cumin as prices between the two nations converge.

Looking forward, while the cumin market remains stable at present, there are hints at potential price increases as demand picks up. Reports indicate that around 35% of this season’s cumin crop is still held by farmers, who are biding their time for potentially higher prices before making sales. This situation, coupled with tightening supply and rising export volumes, could lead to a moderate increase in prices by the end of the year.

In conclusion, while current conditions point to stability in the cumin market, the outlook for exports and the beginning of the sowing season suggest that prices may rise as we approach year’s end. With competitive pricing and reduced production from China, Indian cumin is positioned favorably in the international market, paving the way for gradual price increases as supply tightens.

Source: Commodity Board