India address sugar price, availability issues.

Tightening sugar market fundamentals and rising prices have generated renewed concerns within government circles over the risk of a further spike in the price of the essential food commodity during the upcoming festival season. This may have a bearing on credit policy in the context of inflation expectations. Worse, in a tightly balanced market, even a small change in either demand or supply or both, will exert a disproportionately larger impact on prices; and admittedly the domestic sugar market is tightly balanced this year. According to the government, consumption demand for sugar was 256 lakh tonnes in 2014-15, which declined to 248 lakh tonnes in 2015-16. In the event of a normal South-West monsoon and a decent Kharif harvest in September, rural incomes may rise and result in additional demand for all essential food commodities, including sugar. It would be expedient to plan for 2017-18 and address the immediate issue of sugar availability and prices in the next three months. Indeed, it would be commercially prudent and politically expedient to permit import of an additional 10 lakh tonnes, which can help contain the risk of a price spurt, augment supplies across the country and help have a modest carry-over into the new season. Administrative measures such as storage limits have only a limited impact. Laws of economics will eventually prevail.