Price of maize across key spot markets rose sharply due to a steep decline in supply and firm bulk demand.

Demand was robust as bulk buyers are buying the coarse grain aggressively anticipating a further decline in arrivals in the coming days.

Maize prices are seen up due to an anticipated decline in production in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun). Poultry feed and starch manufacturers, the key industrial buyers of maize, have pegged the crop at 18-20 mln tn this year, much lower than last year. However, the farm ministry has estimated the output to be only 3% lower from the previous year at 27.82 mln tn.

On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, maize futures rose sharply taking cues from the spot market. The most-active July contract rose 2.0% to 2,190 rupees per 100 kg.

Corn futures saw most contracts firm with nearby July 4 1/2 cents higher. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated weekly shipments improving 2.5-fold in the week of 7/4 over last week’s abysmal total at 703,192 MT.

That was still slightly less than half of the same week last year. Another shipment of 65,999 MT of sorghum was inspected for delivery to China.

The weekly Crop Progress report showed 98% of the US corn crop emerged as of 7/7, with 8% silking vs. the 22% average. As expected, NASS indicated crop conditions up 1% to 57% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 index was up 2 points to 352.

The 6-10- and 8-14-day outlooks are showing well above normal chances for warm temps and below normal precip chances for most of the Corn Belt.

USDA’s Ag Attaché in China estimates 19/20 corn production at 230 MMT, vs the USDA official number of 254 MMT.