Sugar prices are likely to decline by five per cent with the arrival of new-season output. Crushing of new-season cane is scheduled to begin this week, with dozens of mills in Uttar Pradesh starting the procuring from farmers. The first of this sugar is scheduled to hit the market by the end of this month. The carryover stock of cane for the new sugar year (it began on October 1) is about four million tonnes. The market expects a rise in sugar output of 24 per cent this year.