Turmeric prices have seen a decrease of 1.12%, closing at 13,108, attributed to diminished demand alongside rising supply levels. The anticipated growth in turmeric cultivation for this season is projected to be 30-35% more than the previous year, raising concerns over potential oversupply.

Favorable climatic conditions, featuring recent dry spells followed by light rainfall, have positively impacted crop growth, especially in key agricultural regions such as Vidarbha and Telangana. Notably, Vidarbha received 20 mm of rain last week, while Telangana recorded approximately 18 mm, promoting healthy crop development. However, reports of possible crop damage from heavy rainfall could lead to greater losses than earlier estimates, adding complexity to the overall market outlook.

With five months remaining until the harvest, lower supply levels and ongoing adverse weather might support turmeric prices in the near future. Meanwhile, harvesting in Indonesia is accelerating under drier conditions, while India has witnessed a significant increase in sowing, particularly along the Erode line. Major states, including Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, have reported a 30-35% rise in sowing activities. Overall, India’s turmeric acreage has expanded from 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year to an estimated 3.75-4 lakh hectares this season.

However, international turmeric exports from April to August 2024 have fallen by 6.46%, with a modest increase of 5.72% in August. Conversely, imports surged by over 340%, reflecting heightened demand in the market amid tight domestic supplies.

From a technical perspective, the turmeric market is currently experiencing a long liquidation phase, with open interest decreasing by 2.41% as prices dropped by 148 rupees. Immediate support is established at 13,032, with further potential decline to 12,956 if this level is breached. Resistance levels are identified at 13,202, with a breakthrough potentially testing 13,296.

Market sentiment remains cautious as traders keep a close watch on the balance between supply and demand factors in the coming weeks.

Source: Kedia Advisory