USDA hikes estimate for 2017/18 wheat imports.

Canada continues to face a growing export opportunity as the USDA continues to trim the potential for the United States wheat crop while hiking estimated for wheat imports over the 2017/18 crop year. Import needs could play an even larger role, given that today’s cut in production was less than expected in pre-report surveys. U.S. all-wheat production estimate was pegged at 1.739 billion bushels, down 24.7% from 2016, and revised lower from the July estimate. At the same time, this estimate is closer to the higher end of the range of pre-report estimates and well-above the average of pre-report estimates at 1.713 bb. The largest impacts were felt in the other spring wheat and durum categories. Spring wheat production is estimated to fall to 402 million bushels, down 21 mb from July’s estimate and 25% lower than the production realized in 2016/17. This estimate was higher than the average of pre-report estimates at 393 mb, while close to the mid-point of the range of estimates seen in pre-report surveys. Estimated durum production was the only wheat class to see production estimated below the average of pre-report estimates, while is also estimated to be below the lowest estimate seen in a range of pre-report estimates. Durum production was estimated at 51 mb, down 7 mb from the July estimate, down 51% from 2016 and below the average of pre-report estimates at 57 mb. This would mark the lowest production seen since 2011/12.