USDA’s Nov WASDE Report: Record Soybean Output, Lower Stocks and Tighten Supply.

Rupesh–Market Commentry– (3 weeks ago)

According to the USDA’s WASDE November report, Global soybean production forecast is reduced by 3.5 million tonne to 425.4 million tonne, primarily due to a 3.3 million tonne cut in U.S. output, now estimated at 121.4 million tonne. Despite this, global production is still expected to reach a record high, as U.S. output remains above average. Brazil’s soybean production is unchanged at 169 million tonne, Argentina’s at 51 million tonne, and India’s estimate is down by 0.3 million tonne to 12.5 million tonne.

  • Soybean Meal Production: Global soybean meal production decreased by 0.2 million tonne to 271.4 million tonne. U.S. meal production fell by 0.3 million tonne to 51.4 million tonne, while production in Argentina (31.3 million tonne) and Brazil (41.5 million tonne) remained unchanged. India’s soybean meal production is steady at 8.8 million tonne.

Exports:

  • Soybean: Global soybean exports are forecast at 181.7 million tonne, unchanged month-over-month. However, U.S. soybean exports were slightly reduced by 0.7 million tonne to 49 million tonne, while Brazil’s export estimate increased by 0.5 million tonne to 105.5 million tonne.
  • Soybean Meal: Global soybean meal exports decreased by 0.1 million tonne to 74.6 million tonne. Exports from Argentina (27.3 million tonne) and Brazil (20.5 million tonne) remained stable, while U.S. meal exports dropped by 0.1 million tonne to 15.7 million tonne. India’s meal exports remained unchanged at 1.3 million tonne.

Ending Stocks:

  • Soybean: Ending stocks are reduced by 3 million tonne to 131 million tonne, with decreases in U.S. stocks (-2.2 million tonne to 12.8 million tonne), Brazil (-0.5 million tonne to 33.5 million tonne), Argentina (-0.4 million tonne to 28.9 million tonne), and India (-0.04 million tonne to 0.94 million tonne).
  • Soybean Meal: Ending stocks of soybean meal increased by 0.2 million tonne to 16.2 million tonne. Argentina’s stocks rose by 0.4 million tonne to 2.8 million tonne, while Brazil’s remained unchanged at 2.6 million tonne. India’s soybean meal stocks decreased by 0.03 million tonne to 0.23 million tonne.  

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Source: USDA