India likely to experience normal monsoon this year

  • India is expected to have a ‘normal’ monsoon between June and September 2024, with monsoon rains predicted to be 102% of the long-period average.
  • Different regions of India will experience varying levels of rainfall, with above-normal rains expected in central and western parts, normal rains in northern and southern parts, and below-normal rains in North-east India and Eastern parts.
  • The transition from El Nino to La Nina is anticipated to impact the onset of the monsoon season, with uneven rainfall distribution throughout the season.
  • The South, West, and Northwest regions of India are predicted to receive favorable rainfall, while eastern states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal may face the risk of deficit rainfall during peak monsoon months.
  • According to the report, the monsoon probabilities for June to September indicate a 10 per cent chance of excess rainfall, a 45 per cent chance of normal rainfall, with a 20 per cent chance of both above-normal, 15 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall, and a 10 per cent chance of drought conditions.