India is likely to witness above-normal monsoon rainfall this year, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The national weather agency has projected rainfall at approximately 105% of the long-term average for the June to September monsoon season, attributing the favorable outlook to neutral El Niño conditions.

A strong monsoon in 2025 could be great news for India’s agriculture, which depends heavily on seasonal rains. More than half of India’s farmland relies on the monsoon, so good rainfall helps boost crop yields and keeps reservoirs full—key for drinking water and electricity generation.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects most parts of the country to get above-average rainfall. However, some areas—like Northwest India, the Northeast, and the southern peninsula—may see less rain than usual.

Even with a positive forecast, meteorologists warn that total rainfall doesn’t guarantee even distribution. Climate change has disrupted usual patterns, leading to fewer rainy days but more intense storms. This shift raises the risk of both floods and droughts, even when overall rainfall seems adequate.

The monsoon usually begins around June 1, starting in Kerala and spreading across the country by mid-September. IMD defines ‘normal’ rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the long-term average of 87 cm (about 35 inches).

Ahead of the rains, much of India is already dealing with extreme heat. Forecasts suggest many heatwave days in the lead-up to June. These conditions are straining power and water supplies, highlighting just how crucial a timely and healthy monsoon is for the country’s economy and environment.

 

Source: The Economic Times