The USDA’s December 2024-25 estimates for the U.S. Soybean market remained unchanged from November, with production, yield, exports, crush, and ending stocks all holding steady. However, the agency revised its average Soybean price forecast downward, reducing it from $10.80 per bushel in November to $10.20 per bushel in December.

Soybean: USDA raised its 2024-25 global Soybean production forecast to 427.1 million tonne, up from 425.4 million tonne in November and significantly higher than last year’s 394.8 million tonne, driven by improved outputs in key producing countries. While crush estimates for the U.S. and Brazil remained unchanged, Argentina’s crush projection increased by 1 million tonne. World ending stocks marginally adjusted to 131.8 million tonne, compared to 131.7 million tonne in November and 112.1 million tonne last year, reflecting a steady global supply outlook amidst rising production. Estimate for Argentina upward to 52 million tonne, up from 51 million tonne in November and significantly higher than last year’s 48.2 million tonne. Meanwhile, Brazil’s production estimate kept unchanged at a record 169 million tonne, compared to 153 million tonne in the previous year.

Soybean Meal: USDA further increased its 2024-25 global Soybean Meal production estimate to 272.4 million tonne, up from 271.4 million tonne in November and significantly higher than last year’s 259.8 million tonne, driven by robust growth in key producing regions. India’s domestic Soybean Meal usage rose by 0.5 million tonne compared to the previous year, reflecting strong local demand. Global Soybean Meal consumption revised upward to 266.5 million tonne, compared to 266.1 million tonne in November and 253.8 million tonne last year. Meanwhile, world ending stocks increased to 16.7 million tonne, up from 16.2 million tonne in November and 14.3 million tonne last year, indicating a gradual buildup in reserves.

Soybean Oil: Global Soybean Oil production forecast was upward by 0.4 million tonne to 65.8 million tonne, compared to last year’s 62.7 million tonne, reflecting steady growth in output. India’s Soybean Oil imports projected higher at 3.8 million tonne, up from 3.6 million tonne in the November estimate and 3.3 million tonne last year, driven by elevated palm oil prices. India’s domestic Soybean Oil usage also saw a sharp increase of 0.8 million tonne year-on-year, reaching 6 million tonne. U.S. domestic usage remained unchanged from November but was up by 0.4 million tonne from last year. Global ending stocks rose slightly to 5.02 million tonne, compared to 4.9 million tonne in November, though still below last year’s 5.3 million tonne, indicating tightening inventories despite increased production.

Source: WASDE, Biodiesel Magazine