India year to September 20117 cotton export tops govt view of 5 million bales.

India cotton exports in the year ending September are already at around 5.2 million bales, well above the Cotton Advisory Board estimate of 5.0 million bales for the whole year, though lower than 6.9 million bales the previous year. According to trade estimates, over 2.0 million bales have been shipped to Bangladesh, around 1.0 million bales to Pakistan, 900,000 bales to China, and 600,000 bales to Vietnam. the country still has 4 million bales of inventory and if prices fall below 20,000 rupees a bale, exports could gain pace in the coming months. As India is staring at a rise of at least 20% in output next year, prices are expected to fall sharply in the coming months.

MCX cotton hits a 5-month low on higher output forecast.

Futures contracts of cotton on the MCX hit a five-month low of 19,820 rupees per bale (1bales=170kg) in early trade due to expectations of higher domestic crop. Farmers in the country have sown cotton across 1.41 million ha as of Jun 8, up 42.4% on year. However, cotton June contract on the MCX recovered from the low and was trading at 19,960 rupees, up 0.5% from the previous close.

MCX cotton down on high stock, good output hopes.

Futures contracts of cotton fell on MCX due to high stocks and a rise in acreage. The USDA has scaled up its estimate for ending stocks of cotton in India for the season to 13.34 million bales (1USbale=480pound) from 13.24 million bales projected in May. Expectation of a higher production of cotton also weighed on the sentiment. Farmers in the country have sown cotton across 1.41 million ha as of Jun 8, up 42.4% on year. On the MCX, the June contract was at 20,090 rupees per bale (1bale=170kg), down 0.6% from the previous close.

MCX cotton down on higher output expectations.

Futures contracts of cotton on the MCX fell because of expectations of a higher production in the country, backed by a rise in acreage. Farmers in the country had sown cotton across 1.41 million hectares as of Jun 8, up 42.4% on year, according to the agriculture ministry’s sowing data for 2017-18 (Jul-Jun). Higher ending stocks of cotton with farmers also weighed on the sentiment. The USDA has scaled up its estimate for ending stocks of cotton in India for 2017-18 (Aug-Jul) to 13.34 million bales (1USbale=480pound) from 13.24 million bales projected in May. On the MCX, the June contract was at 20,390 rupees per bale (1bale=170kg), down 0.7% from the previous close.

USDA ups India 2017-18 cotton ending stock estimate to 13.3 million bales.

USDA has scaled up its estimate for ending stocks of cotton in India for 2017-18 (Aug-Jul) to 13.34 million bales (1USbale=480pound) from 13.24 million bales projected in May. Global ending stocks of cotton for 2017-18 are seen at 87.71 million bales, up from 87.14 million bales estimated a month ago. The department has kept its estimate for the world largest producer of cotton, India year-to-July 2018 crop unchanged at 28.00 million bales, while it has lowered its forecast for exports to 4.2 million bales from 4.5 million bales estimated in May. Global cotton production in 2017-18 is seen at 114.73 million bales, against 113.22 million bales estimated earlier, due to higher output in Pakistan, China, and Mexico. For 2017-18, cotton imports by India are seen at 1.75 million bales, unchanged from the previous estimate.

MCX cotton down as India 2017-18 end-stocks seen up.

Futures contracts of cotton on the MCX fell as USDA raised its estimate for India cotton ending stocks for 2017-18 (Aug-Jul). On the MCX, the June contract was at 20,580 rupees per bale (1bale=170 kg), down 0.8% from the previous close. Higher acreage in Gujarat, the largest producer, further dampened sentiment. As on Jun 5, cotton acreage in Gujarat was at 49,500 ha, higher than 15,200 ha a year ago.

India year to Jun 2018 cotton area up 42% at 1.4 million hectares.

Farmers had sown cotton across 1.41 million hectares as of Thursday, up 42.4% on year. In Haryana, acreage was at 630,000 hectares, up 28% on year, while in Punjab, the area under cotton was up 52% at 382,000 hectares. Farmers in Gujarat, country’s largest producer, have started sowing cotton early this year and covered 49,000 ha as of Thursday.

NCDEX cotton oilcake up 2% on bargain buying.

Futures contracts of cottonseed oilcake on NCDEX were 2% higher on bargain buying by investors after prices fell to over 18-month low of 1,568 rupees per 100 kg. The most active July contract of cottonseed oilcake on NCDEX was at 1,707 rupees per 100 kg, were up 2.2% from previous close, while June contract was up 1,632 rupees per 100 kg, up 2.1%. Open interest in the July contract increased to 92,740 tonne from 88,830 tonne indicating bargain buying by investors. In Amravati, Maharashtra cottonseed oilcake was sold for 1,650-1,750 rupees per 100 kg, up 5-10 rupees from previous close.

NCDEX cotton oilcake down as IMD ups monsoon view.

Futures contracts of cottonseed oilcake on NCDEX fell from the intraday high of 1,664 rupees per 100 kg after the India Metrological Department raised the south-west monsoon forecast for 2017. IMD today revised its southwest monsoon forecast for 2017 to 98% of long period average from 96% predicted earlier. June cottonseed oilcake contract traded at 1,632 rupees, down 0.6%, while the most-active July contract was down 0.5% at 1,704 rupees. Cheaper alternatives for cattle feed has hit demand for cottonseed oilcake, and this further weighed on sentiment.

MCX cotton down on global cues; output seen higher.

Futures contracts of cotton fell on MCX today trackin weakness in cotton futures on ICE, and because of higher year-to-September 2018 output estimates. Progress of sowing across the country dampened the sentiment. Indian farmers had sown cotton across 1.22 mln ha as of Thursday, up 29.7% on year. On MCX, the June cotton contract was at 20,820 rupees per bale (1bale=170kg), down 0.5% from the previous close, while the most-active December contract on ICE was at 72.59 cents per pound, down 0.5%.

Pakistan sees 2017-18 cotton crop down by 2 million bales.

Pakistan year-to-Jul 2018 cotton output is seen down by 2 million bales (1bale=170kg) to 12.04 million bales due to water shortage and concerns over yield owing to late sowing. For 2017-18, Pakistan has set a cotton production target of around 14.4 million bales and is eyeing an area of 3.11 million ha under the crop. India may get an opportunity to export raw cotton in the coming season due to lower production in the neighboring country. India total cotton exports to Pakistan in 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) are estimated at 1.8-2.0 million bales.