Soybean

Nearby soybean meal was down $1.10/ton and soy oil was up 7 points. The USDA weekly Export Sales report showed old crop sales of 273,400 MT, below pre-report ideas of 300,000-600,000 MT. However, new crop bookings totaled 771,600 MT and were above the top end of trade ideas. After the Friday close, USDA reported April soybean crush of 171.62 million bushels, with an implied oil yield of 11.45. That was close to trade estimates.

On National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, the most-active June contract of soybean closed 0.5% higher, tracking gains on Chicago Board of Trade. Soybean prices on the US bourse rose due to bargain buying, and as a truckers’ strike in Brazil. Mustard futures on NCDEX closed 1.3% higher due to improved purchases by oil millers at lower prices. Refined soyoil on NCDEX and crude palm oil on MCX traded lower due to lukewarm demand in spot markets.

The Moscow Exchange started trading soybeans on May 23. It plans to trade the commodity in deliverable forward contracts and swap contracts, with at least a three-day delay in settlement of transactions. At the initial stage, exchange trades will be held on a delivery basis of LLC Bureyskoye Grain Plant, which is the first accredited basis all over the Far East. It is planned to expand the geography of trade in the future through involving accredited delivery bases in other regions.

Argentina’s imports of soybeans are expected to reach 4 million mt this crop year, double the previous volume.

Soybean contracts on NCDEX fell on expectation that farmers may sow more of the oilseed this kharif season lured by better returns and government procurement. The most-active June contract was down 1.1%. Meanwhile, the crucial southwest monsoon current has advanced into interior parts of Karnataka and will advance further into other states, boosting sowing prospects.

SOPA has indicated a tight supply position of soybean with carry forward stock projected to be only one lakh tonne at the end of oil year 2017 18. The country’s soybean meal and soy product exports volume has been revised upwards to 15 lakh tonne from earlier estimate of 12.5 lt for 2017- 18 which has led to lowering of ending stocks. India’s soybean imports this year are likely to touch a record high of around 1 lakh tonne as domestic supply tightened due to low production.

Soybean contracts on the NCDEX fell ahead of the onset of monsoon and firmness in the rupee against the dollar. The most active June contract was down 1.4%. Earlier-than-expected arrival of monsoon in Kerala has raised hope sowing of the oilseed will be higher in the country. According to India Meteorological Department, monsoon may advance to parts of Kerala in the next 24 hours. The likelihood of acreage under the oilseed rising is seen bearish for prices. Higher arrivals of the oilseed are also seen weighing on prices.

The government is likely to fix the minimum support price for 2018-19 kharif soybean at around 3,390 rupees per 100 kg. Last year, the government had set the support price at 3,050 rupees per 100 kg. The recommended price is in line with the Centre’s promise of keeping the support price of crops at 1.5 times the cost of production. In October, the government had announced the minimum support price for most rabi crops at over one and a half times the cost involved. The finance minister had said the government will extend this formula to all other crops.For 2017-18 (Jul-Jun), the government in its third advance estimate has pegged soybean output at 10.9 mln tn.

Argentina crushed 3.36 million mt of soybeans in April, down 16% from the 4 million mt crushed in April 2017.

Soybean stocks in China climbed to 7.73 million mt at the end of May, the highest level seen in over four years.

Adani Wilmar Ltd took the highest delivery of soybean at 25,910 tn under the April contract on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange. ITC Ltd made the highest delivery of soybean at 7,950 tn under the April contract. For April contract, Times Comtrade Pvt Ltd made the highest delivery of mustard at 2,640 tn and Cargill India Pvt Ltd took the highest delivery of 6,250 tn.

The July futures contract of soybean hit a three-week high of $10.3575 a bushel on the CBOT as US-China trade concerns eased, raising hopes of improved exports of the oilseed from the US. The most active July contract was at $10.32 a bushel, up 0.2%. China’s imports of soybean in April declined 13.7% on year to 6.9 mln tn. US CBOT soyoil also rose to six-week high of 31.75 cents a pound on Tuesday tracking gains in soybean.

Soybean contracts on the NCDEX were slightly up because of lower arrivals in the spot market and tracking gains in bellwether contracts on the CBOT. The most-active June contract on the NCDEX was up 12 rupees. Arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh, the key market for the oilseed were down. Soybean in Indore, the benchmark market for the oilseed, it was selling at 3,750 rupees per 100 kg, up 5-10 rupees from previous day.

Soybean futures saw 8 to 9 1/2 cent gains in most contracts. Soymeal were up $3.20/ton, with front month soy oil 19 points higher. A report late on Wednesday showed that a Chinese importer purchased a cargo of US soybeans for shipment in August. The average trade guess for old crop soybean export sales is for net reductions of 200,000 to sales of 400,000 MT. That comes after the USDA earlier reported private exporters canceling a large chunk of old crop sales in the daily reporting system. New crop sales are seen at 200,000-400,000 MT. Soy meal sales are expected at 100,000-500,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. Ports in Argentina will be shut down on Thursday due to a strike by workers demanding better conditions and wages.

US soybean exports scrapped as China shifts to Brazilian beans.

Soybean exports found 10.4 million bushels in old crop sales last week, plus another 8.3 million bushels of new crop sales, for a total of 18.6 million bushels. That was moderately lower than both the prior week’s total of 23.2 million bushels as well as trade estimates of 25.7 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts still eased lower, to 15.9 million bushels. Soybean export shipments reached 24.0 million bushels last week, which was 39% ahead of the prior week and 30% above the four-week average. China regained its No. 1 position, with 4.8 million bushels, followed closely by the Netherlands, Egypt, Mexico and Indonesia.

China has purchased record amounts of soybeans from Russia in recent months amid trade tensions with the U.S. Russian sold 850,000 metric tons of soybeans to China between July 2017 and mid-May this year. The record sales represent more than twice the 340,000 tons sold during the previous growing period. The move comes amid China’s halt on purchases from the U.S., the world’s largest producer of soybeans. China has cancelled multiple U.S. shipments in recent weeks ahead of tariffs, including a 62,690-ton purchase on April 19.

Crude palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives settled higher, tracking soyoil contracts on CBOT. The prices of crude palm oil and soyoil typically move in tandem. A weak ringgit against the dollar also supported crude palm oil prices, as weakness in the Malaysian currency makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. The most-active August contract of crude palm oil on the Malaysian bourse settled at 2,432 ringgits (41,499.40 rupees) per tn, up 0.8% from the previous close.

This season’s upward trend in monthly volumes of soybean oil production brings it to record levels. So, a record 426.6 KMT was produced during the first seven months of the 2017/18 season (September-March) that is up 15% on the year. Soybean crushing in Russia slowed down in March 2018. Soybean oil production decreased 9.5% that month against February 2018, to 56 KMT. However, this is up 27% from 44.1 KMT in March 2017 and an all-time high for this month. Despite of increase in soybean processing in the current season, Russian soybean shipments to foreign markets in MY 2017/18 (September-February) remained at the highest level. They totaled 465.3 KMT, i.e. 26% more than in the whole of MY 2016/17 (368.3 KMT). In the current 2017/18 season, Russia’s export trade in soybeans is focused on key importers. So, exports to China increased significantly. China’s share in total exports rose to 96% against 84% a year ago. Iran accounted for almost 4%. Russia started supplying soybeans to the Iranian market in MY 2016/17.

Prices of soybean in Indore were down despite lower arrivals because of subdued demand and weakness in bellwether contracts on CBOT. In Indore, the benchmark market for the oilseed, soybean was sold down 20-25 rupees. Weak demand from oilseed crushers weighed on prices. The most active June contract of soybean on the NCDEX was down 10 rupees.