U.S. 2017/18 all rice production is forecast at 201.0 million cwt, down 23.1 million from the previous year, all on a substantial reduction in long grain acreage as indicated by the NASS Prospective Plantings survey issued March 31. The forecast 2017/18 yields are based on long-term historical trends and are higher for long grain but slightly lower for combined medium- and short-grain. Total 2017/18 rice supplies are forecast to decrease 7 percent from the previous year to 273.1 million cwt, primarily on the reduction in long grain. U.S. 2017/18 total use is projected at 235.0 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year with both domestic and residual use and exports projected lower. Long-grain exports are projected at 76.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million from 2016/17 on reduced exportable supplies. Combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 34.0 million cwt, down 1 million on increased export competition from Australia and Egypt. All rice 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 38.1 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year. Long-grain stocks are projected at 20.7 million cwt, down 8 million from 2016/17, while combined medium- and short-grain are projected 2 million cwt lower at 14.6 million. The 2017/18 all rice season-average farm price is projected at $10.70 to $11.70/cwt, up $0.80 from the previous year’s revised midpoint. Total 2017/18 global supplies are at 599.9 million tons, up 2.6 million from 2016/17, based on larger carry-in stocks. World 2017/18 rice production is projected at 481.3 million tons, down fractionally from last year’s record output. Total world rice consumption is projected at a record 480.1 million tons, up from the revised 2016/17 level of 478.7 million. Global exports are projected at 42.2 million tons, up 0.8 million from 2016/17. Thailand and India are expected to be the leading rice exporters for 2017/18, both at 10.0 million tons. World 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 119.8 million tons, up marginally from 2016/17. China continues to hold the majority of global rice stocks as its growing production and large imports continue to outpace consumption.
WASDE SUGAR MAY OUTLOOK
U.S. fiscal year 2016/17 beet sugar production is decreased 64,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on lower expected sucrose recovery. Cane sugar production in Texas is reduced by 2,795 STRV based on final processor reporting. TRQ imports entering under Free Trade Agreements are increased by 2,555 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 100,000 STRV based on pace to date. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are estimated at 1.477 million STRV. Sugar production for 2017/18 is projected at 8.700 million STRV, the sum of beet sugar production of 4.950 million and cane sugar production of 3.750 million. Imports for 2017/18 are projected at 3.858 million STRV and are comprised of TRQ imports of 1.373 million; re-export imports of 175,000; imports from Mexico of 2.301 million; and high-tier tariff imports of 10,000. Projected 2017/18 TRQ imports of specialty sugar include only the WTO minimum quantity because any additional quantities have not been announced by the Secretary of Agriculture. Exports for 2017/18 are projected at 25,000 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are expected to increase 1.0 percent year-over-year to 12.322 million STRV. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected residually at 1.534 million, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.3 percent. For 2016/17, Mexico sugar exports to non-U.S. destinations are reduced by 58,919 metric tons (MT) to 110,000 based on pace to date. Product re-export deliveries under the IMMEX program are increased 60,000 MT to 390,000 to match the total now estimated by Mexico authorities for 2015/16. Ending stocks are estimated residually at 1.342 million MT, an increase of 48,919 over last month. For 2017/18, Mexico sugar production is projected at 6.225 million MT based on a sugarcane crop of 55.000 million and a recovery of about 11.3 percent. Combined per capita consumption of sugar and HFCS for 2017/18 is projected the same as for 2016/17. With flat HFCS consumption, sugar deliveries for human consumption for 2017/18 are projected at 4.528 million. Exports to the United States are based on U.S. Needs as defined in the Suspension Agreements but, assuming additionally, that U.S. specialty sugar imports will be set at the same level as initially established for 2016/17.
India Sugar Up in Muzaffarnagar, Delhi on Stuckists demand.
Demand from Stuckists pushed sugar prices up in the wholesale market of Muzaffarnagar and Delhi. Medium-grade sugar was sold up 10-20 rupees in Muzaffarnagar and in Mumbai. Demand of the sugar from other states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat was offset by forecast of normal monsoon in 2017. On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, the May sugar futures were down as investors liquidated their positions ahead of staggered delivery from previous close. May sugar contract was down 0.4% and the July futures were up 0.1%.
Rice flat as govt ups output estimate.
Prices of rice remained flat in major spot markets. The government also raised its estimate for 2016-17 rice crop to 109.15 million tonne from 108.86 million tonne projected earlier. Last year, India produced 104.41 million tonne of rice.
Dairy body to buy 300 tonne de-oiled rice bran Thursdqay.
The National Cooperative Dairy Federation of India will buy 300 tonne of de-oiled rice bran and 50 tonne of maize through a reverse electronic auction on Thursday. The commodities, used as cattle feed, will be bought on behalf of Indian Immunologicals Limited. The federation, which has nearly 200 dairy cooperatives as members, has developed an online trading platform to purchase feed stock and sell dairy products.
Maize down as govt ups output estimate.
Most components of the grain basket on domestic exchanges, except maize, were steady in trade. According to the government third advance estimate, India rabi maize output in 2016-17 is expected to be 6.97 million tonne, slightly higher than 6.89 million tonne estimated earlier. The country had produced 6.51 million tonne rabi maize in 2015-16. The June maize contract on the NCDEX traded down around 1% from previous close. Higher arrivals of maize due to peak season in Bihar, a major producing state, also weighed on the sentiment. The coarse grain sold in Purnea largely unchanged from previous close.
Ukrainian grain market was sluggish last week.
Last week, the Ukrainian grain market was sluggish. Domestic prices for all major cereals kept falling. CPT market was also quiet amid the decreased demand from importers for old-crop grain. A significant reduction of wheat exports from Ukraine is expected in May-June. Domestic grain CPT-port prices dropped on average by UAH 50-100/MT. New crop as well as strengthening of the national currency still pressured the domestic prices.
Wheat up on flour mills buying.
New Delhi Barring rise in wheat prices, other commodities moved in a tight range in the absence of worthwhile activities, settling at their previous levels. Arrivals and offtake too remained at a low ebb and volume of business restricted. Wheat dara also showed some strength on increased offtake by flour mills. Rise in wheat dara prices was mostly supported by increased offtake by rolling flour mills to meet increased demand. In the national capital, wheat dara (for mills) on the back of increased offtake by flour mills wheat dara prices rose by another Rs 20 per quintal.
India Wheat flat as govt ups output estimate.
Wheat futures on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange ended largely unchanged as higher supplies in physical markets were offset by demand from flour millers ahead of Ramzan. The most-active June contract on the NCDEX ended up 0.06% from the previous close. The overall sentiment was bearish as the government raised this year wheat production estimate to a record prominent level. In benchmark Indore market, mill quality wheat traded steady. In the Delhi market wheat prices were a tad up 5 rupees from previous close.
Coriander prices up in Rajasthan as output seen low.
Prices of coriander rose in the spot markets of Rajasthan due to expectations of low output this year. India coriander output in 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) is seen at around 9 million bags (1bag=40kg), compared with 10 million bags last year. In the benchmark market of Kota, the Badami variety and the Eagle variety both up 100 rupees from previous close. Arrivals in Kota and Ramganj were pegged at 4,800 bags (1bag=40kg) up 1,300 bags.