Month: June 2018

One country that could indirectly benefit from the intensifying US-China trade war is Brazil, which finds itself in a strategic position to increase its market share of soybean exports to China. China is expected to import 100 million mt of soybeans this year, up from 95 million mt in 2017. The US accounted for 33 million mt, or just over a third, of the 2017 total. With US soybeans now in line for a 25% tariff, Chinese buyers are likely to shift their interest to the South American region, which accounts for nearly half of global soybean production. The latest estimate for the 2017-2018 Brazilian soybean crop is up to 119 million mt, compared to last year’s harvest of 114 million mt. Of this 51 million mt was exported to China, up 33% up from 2016. The other major South Americn producer, Argentina, is not in much of a position to offer competition this year. Soybean production there has been hammered by poor weather conditions that mean its crop is expected to be the lowest in a decade.This leaves the field open to Brazil as the main supplier of soybeans and at more competitive prices than the other options available on the market. Meanwhile, the weakness of the Brazilian currency enhances farmers’ margins when compared with the more expensive US grains that, despite the drop in prices caused by the US-China trade dispute, are still not as attractive.

Hundreds of thousands of U.S. soybean farmers are rethinking strategy because of a growing fear that a potential trade war with China would cripple the industry. The Trump administration announced $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods for “unfair trade practices” involving intellectual property and American technology, and China responded with its own trade threat – $50 billion in tariffs on U.S. goods, including soybeans. Soybean farmers say they are already feeling the pinch. The back-and-forth has caused significant price drops for soybeans this year, just months ahead of harvest season. China imported 60 percent of U.S. soybeans exports in 2017, according to the American Soybean Association (ASA). The ASA, which represents 300,000 soybean farmers, noted a $6 billion price drop for the 2018 crop, which will be harvested later this year.

Soybean prices in Indore rose because arrivals of the oilseed fell, and as area under the oilseed is seen lower. The area under soybean in the country was at 212,400 ha as of Thursday, down 59% from a year ago. In Indore, the benchmark market, prices were up 50 rupees at 3,450-3,500 rupees per 100 kg. arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh were estimated at 30,000-40,000 bags (1 bag =100 kg), down 4,000-5,000 bags.

A growing trade war between the United States and China is weighing heavily on American soybean prices, which have fallen sharply from the spring highs. The weather in the U.S. Midwest is co-operating and the amount of soybeans in good to excellent shape at 74 percent is much better than last year at this time and better than the 10 year average. It is hard to keep up with conflicting developments in this row between the Trump administration and China. The spring high in new crop November soybeans was reached May 25 and the price had fallen since then by almost 12 percent.

CBOT soybean is continuing with its bearish tone ended price mixed tone. Favourable US crop weather and increasing trade tension between US & China pressurising the market. China is looking for more imports of soybean from Paraguay and Uruguay as Brazil cannot supply the increased demand.As tariffs will raise the overall cost of imports from the USA, so Brazil premiums for soybean climbed over 7% as trade tension between two countries increasing demand from Brazil. However, the USA’s high temperatures resulted in a slight decline in the soybean rating. The condition of the 2018 U.S. soybean crop declined 1% last week to 73% rated good to excellent. Seven states indicated that the soybean condition improved last week, nine states reported that the soybean condition declined last week, and two were unchanged.