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Rice prices go up if government bans imports of the staple grain. Stopping all rice importation is a dangerous policy that lead to significant shortages and increased rice prices. And it needed to buy 490,800 tons of rice to boost its stockpiles that have fallen below the required level ahead of the July to September lean harvest season.

Flash floods in the greater Sylhet region have taken its toll on farmers and created a shortage of paddy for small to medium-sized rice mills. The Haor areas in northern Sylhet account for nearly 10% of the total cultivation area of about 4.8 million hectares this year and the flooding has adversely affected about 140,000 hectares. The mills usually stock up near the end of the season, which is not happening this season due to unexpected floods and only the big millers are well stocked with paddy. It all boils down to is a rise in retail prices of coarse rise in Dhaka by nearly 6.5% over a week and there is upward price rise of such rice in other parts of the country.

National Food Authority has appealed to the NFA Council to allow the importation of rice, as the deficit in its buffer stock stands at 9.8 million bags, equivalent to 490,800 metric tons (MT). NFA to maintain a buffer rice stock good to last for 15 days at any given time and for 30 days at the onset of the calamity-prone lean months, based on the daily consumption requirement of 32,150 MT. NFA needs an additional 490,800 MT of rice to meet the mandated volumes for food security. This additional stock to come from local produce, cannot compete with the private traders who are offering prices much higher than the government’s P17-per-kilogram support price.

Rice prices edged up as large millers are cashing in on crop losses, caused by the recent flash floods in the greater Sylhet region, amid depleting stocks from previous harvests and low imports. In Dhaka, retail prices of coarse rice such as the swarna variety ise to a new level of Tk 40-42/kg, up 6.49% from Tk 37-40 a week ago. Prices of the medium and fine categories of the staple also went up between 1.96 percent and 4.65 percent in the last one week. The flood has affected 1.40 lakh hectares of paddy in the fields. Speculation over delayed harvest for the bad weather is another reason for the recent price spiral as farmers, small and medium millers and wholesalers do not have paddy stocks. Govt can reduce the import duty on rice to encourage imports and increase the supply in the market. Rice imports by private traders slumped 65 percent to 76,600 tonnes in July-March of the current fiscal year from the same time last year, after the government hiked the duty from 20% to 28% to ensure that growers get fair prices for their produce.

According to Nigeria Customs Service, it has restricted the exit of rice from Free Trade Zone in the country to ensure total compliance to the ban on the importation of rice. Due to the high level of security along the border lines, some Nigerians were taking advantage of the status of the Free Trade Zone to smuggle rice into the country.