Prices of select bold grains advanced by up to Rs 30 per quintal at the wholesale grains market due to increased offtake by consuming industries. Increased offtake by consuming industries amid pause in arrivals from producing regions, mainly attributed the rise in select bold grain prices. In the national capital, barley rose by Rs 10 to rs 1590-1600 per quital.
ICRA does not see sustained recovery in sugar prices due to glut.
Ratings agency ICRA expects sugar prices to fall again on the likelihood of another bumper year of production in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep). Prices of the sweetener have recovered to around 3,350 rupees per 100 kg from a low of 2,650 rupees due to various government measures. Indian Sugar Mills Association has forecast sugar output during the next season at an all-time high of 35.0-35.5 mln tn, beating the record production of the ongoing season at 32.3 mln tn. In June, the government had asked mills to create a 3-mln-tn buffer stock of the sweetener. It had also fixed a floor price for sale of white sugar by mills at 29 rupees per kg for the ongoing season to help them clear cane arrears, which had topped 230 bln rupees in May. After the government measures and recovery in sugar prices, the arrears declined to around 178 bln rupees as on Jul 18. Further, the hike in FRP (fair and remunerative price) is likely to result in margin pressures and provide further impetus to farmers to sow sugarcane, which is likely to exacerbate the oversupply conditions. Earlier this month, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved fixing the fair and remunerative price of sugarcane for 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) at 275 rupees per 100 kg. For 2018-19, the government has linked the cane price of 275 rupees per 100 kg to a basic recovery rate of 10% instead of the usual 9.5%, taking into account the increase in average sugar recovery from cane in the past few years. In the 2018-19 season, the government would provide a premium of 2.75 rupees per 100 kg for each 0.1 percentage point rise in recovery rate. At a recovery rate of 10%, this seasons fair price works out to be around 268.4 rupees per 100 kg, which means the effective increase in cane price for 2018-19 is nearly 2.5%.
Centre-South Brazil Jul 1-15 sugar output 2.39 mln tn, down 23% YoY.
Mills in Brazils centre-south region produced 2.39 mln tn sugar during the first fortnight of July, down 23.3% from 3.11 mln tn in the year-ago period. Mills in the region, which accounts for more than 90% of the countrys total sugar output, crushed 44.88 mln tn of sugarcane during Jul 1-15, down 6.5% on year. During Apr 1-Jul 15, mills in the region crushed 267.42 mln tn of cane, up 8.1% on year. During the same period, they produced 12.14 mln tn sugar, down 14.5% on year. Sugar production in the region during the period was lower despite the rise in crushing because mills diverted more cane towards ethanol, whose prices are more attractive than sugars.
IGC cuts forecast for world wheat crop to five-year low.
World wheat production is set to fall to a five-year low following significant downgrades to crop prospects in the European Union and Russia. The inter-governmental body cut its forecast for world wheat production in 2018/19 by 16 million tonnes to 721 million, the lowest total since the 2013/14 season. The EU wheat crop was seen at 139.9 million tonnes, down from a previous projection of 147.3 million, with forecasts for the top four producers in the trading bloc, France, Germany, Britain and Poland, all revised down. Russias wheat crop was forecast to fall to 66 million tonnes, down from a previous projection of 70.9 million and far below the prior seasons 84.9 million. Global wheat stocks were forecast to fall to a two-year low of 247 million tonnes with production set to fail to keep pace with consumption in 2018/19 which was seen at 739 million.
The IGC kept its forecast for world corn (maize) production
The IGC kept its forecast for world corn (maize) production in 2018/19 at 1.052 billion tonnes, slightly above the prior seasons 1.044 billion, but a second successive global deficit was expected with consumption seen at 1.098 billion. A projected increase in maize largely hinges on a recovery in output in South America where planting for 2018/19 is still some months away.
Rice production is forecast up by 3mn t to 491mn t in 2018-19
Rice production is forecast up by 3mn t to 491mn t in 2018-19, but a rise of 5mn t in global rice consumption to 493mn t places demand above supply, reducing ending stocks by 2mn t.
World soybean production in 2018/19 was put at 359 million tonnes
World soybean production in 2018/19 was put at 359 million tonnes, marginally up from a previous projection of 358 million. A small global surplus was anticipated with consumption projected at 356 million.
Govt may fix sugar sale quota for Aug at 2.1-2.2 mln tn.
The government is likely to fix the domestic sale quota for sugar mills at 2.1-2.2 mln tn for August. In June and July, the Centre had allowed mills to sell 2.1 mln tn and 1.65 mln tn of the sweetener, respectively. The quota will be higher for August than July as we expect an increase in festival season demand ahead of Janmashtami and Raksha Bandhan. In June, the government had asked mills to create a 3-mln-tn buffer stock of the sweetener. It had also fixed a floor price for sale of white sugar by mills at 29 rupees per kg for the ongoing season to help them clear cane arrears, which had topped 230 bln rupees in May.
Andhra govt seeks to buy 15,145 tn sugar for sale via PDS.
Andhra Pradesh State Civil Supplies Corp has invited bids to buy 15,145.31 tn of sugar (S-30, S-31) from sugar manufacturers, traders, cooperative sugar mills, bulk suppliers, processors, through an auction on NCDEX e-Markets. The auction will take place on Thursday and the commodity is required in September and October for sale under the public distribution system.
The amount of sugarcane crushed in the first half of July
The amount of sugarcane crushed in the first half of July in Brazils key Center-South region is expected to be 45.39 million mt, down 5.4% year on year, but slightly higher than the previous two-week periods 45.31 million mt. Despite the extremely dry weather in Center-South Brazil in July, which could have favored a good pace of crushing, some sugarcane mills were reported to have halted operations for maintenance. The cumulative cane crush thus far this season would reach 267.6 million mt, up 8.15% year on year.
UkrAgroConsult the consultancy raised its forecast for this year’s maize
UkrAgroConsult the consultancy raised its forecast for this year’s maize harvest to 27.3 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 26.6 million tonnes. The 2018/19 maize exports forecast remained unchanged at 21 million tonnes. The current weather conditions suggest corn yield in Ukraine may rise. In view of the above. Forecasts corn production in the country to hit a record 27.3-27.5 million tonnes.
Madhya Pradesh aims 2-mln-tn paddy buys 18-19.
The Madhya Pradesh government has set a target of procuring 2.0 mln tn of paddy in the kharif marketing season in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep).
China clears 14 Indian rice companies for export amid trade war with US.
China has agreed to import rice from 14 of the 19 registered rice exporters from India, while the remaining five— mostly of basmati rice sellers — have been asked to improve storage and isolation facilities before applying afresh. China allows import of only basmati rice from India, but with this clearance, even non-basmati rice can be exported.
Burma price of best rice rises as output falls.
The price of high-quality rice in the country is increasing annually because of a decline in production. Myanmar people mainly consume high-quality Pawsan rice, which is grown in Ayeyarwady Region, and Shwe Bo Pawsan rice grown in Shwe Bo township of Sagaing Region. In 2014, a bag of Pawsan rice cost K29,000 (US$20). That rose to K35,000 in 2015 and K42,000 this year. That’s an increase of more than 44 percent over the four-year period. Meanwhile, the price of a bag of Shwe Bo Pawsan rice rose 58pc to K57,000 in 2018 over the same period.
Bad weather delaying delivery of 240,000 bags of imported
A series of weather disturbances in the past few weeks have been delaying the delivery of 240,000 bags of imported rice from Thailand meant for Eastern Visayas region. The foreign vessel carrying 140,000 bags of Thai rice is stuck at Bacolod port for weeks and was unable to unload the allocation for Negros Island. The vessel was scheduled to arrive in the region two weeks ago. the cargo ship unloaded 25,000 bags out of 80,000 bags intended for Negros Island. If the weather improves, unloading of remaining 55,000 will be completed within a week. Another ship from Thailand carrying 100,000 bags is still taking shelter in the West Philippine Sea due to storm.
Akola tur down in thin trade on transporters strike.
Prices of tur fell in thin trade in the benchmark market of Akola because of a a transporters strike and incessant rains. In Akola, tur was sold at 3,800 rupees per 100 kg, down 50 rupees. Arrivals were unchanged at 500-700 bags (1 bag = 100 kg). Prices were steady in Kalaburagi, Karnataka, at 3,700-3,850 rupees, with arrivals also steady at 2,000-3,000 bags.
Barley down in Jaipur on low demand from brewers.
Prices of barley fell in Jaipur owing to sluggish demand from malt manufacturers as concern over quality of the domestic stock persisted. In the benchmark Jaipur market, barley was sold for 1,350 rupees per 100 kg, down 10 rupees. Talk that the grain will be imported from Argentina is also creating bearishness in the market. However, limited supply and improved demand from poultry feed sector cushioned the fall in prices.
Hoping for the best: Onion auctions to restart despite truckers’ strike.
Onion auctions, which had come to a halt at Lasalgaon — the country’s largest wholesale market for the vegetable — due to the ongoing transporters’ strike, after an agreement was reached between the traders and the market committee officials. Even though the strike has not been called off, traders agreed to take a risk and participate in the auctions. However, they hope that the agitation will be called off by the truckers in a couple of days. On Monday, some onion auctions took place in the sub-divisional market committees of Niphad, Umrana and Vanchur. Onion arrivals in these markets had touched 16,686 quintals and modal prices touched Rs 1,100 per quintal.Last week, arrivals at Lasalgaon were around 18,064 quintals with prices averaging at Rs 1,116 per quintal. Prices and arrivals were in the same range throughout last week.
Kuwait may start purchasing Russian wheat.
The relevant authorities of Russia and Kuwait held talks about the possibility of supplying Russian wheat to the State of Kuwait. Russia has just occasionally exported wheat to Kuwait by now: 9.8 KMT in July 2015/16. Russia supplies barley to the Kuwaiti market. Barley shipments totaled 157.9 KMT in July-May 2017/18.
Drought to force top wheat buyer Egypt to pay more.
A drought that’s hit wheat crops across the Black Sea region and Europe will force top buyer Egypt to pay more for supplies. The cheapest offer tender was more than $14 a metric ton higher than what Egypt’s state run buyer paid in its last purchase. The General Authority for Supply Commodities is seeking wheat for Sept. 1-10 delivery. Benchmark futures traded in Chicago have surged almost 20 percent this year and Paris wheat for December is trading near a record for the contract. Dry weather means Russian production will fall for the first time in six years and output in Ukraine will be lower than expected. GTCS made the lowest offer at $234.26 a ton including freight for Russian wheat. Egypt paid an average $220.25 a ton for 175,000 tons of Russian wheat in the last tender on July 10. The second-lowest offer was from Daewoo at $235.66 a ton, also for Russian grain.