Sugar Production Forecast for India (2024-2025):

The USDA predicts India’s centrifugal sugar production in the marketing year 2024-2025 to reach 34.5 million metric tons, equivalent to 33 million metric tons of crystal white sugar.

Due to delayed rains in Maharashtra and Karnataka and red rot infestation in central Uttar Pradesh, the current year’s sugar production estimate has been revised down to 34 million metric tons, equivalent to 32 million metric tons of crystal white sugar.

India’s sugar exports for the marketing year 2024-2025 are estimated at 3.7 million metric tons, as the government is expected to maintain export restrictions to ensure sufficient domestic supply and support the Ethanol Blending Program.

Sugarcane Production and Planted Area:

  • The report forecasts India’s sugar planted area for the marketing year 2024-25 at 5.42 million hectares, with total sugarcane production expected to reach 416 million metric tons.
  • In the current marketing year 2023-24, the planted area has been revised to 5.45 million hectares, slightly lower than the previous estimate, with sugarcane production at 415.5 million metric tons.
  • The decrease in acreage is attributed to the El Nino weather pattern, resulting in reduced rainfall at the beginning of the season, affecting cane growth in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka.
  • Factors such as limited rainfall in Maharashtra and red-rot infestation in Uttar Pradesh have impacted sugar production in these key states.

State-specific Impacts:

  • In Maharashtra, limited rainfall has influenced sugar production, with the state’s output estimated at 1 million metric tons.
  • Uttar Pradesh experienced red-rot infestation, affecting cane growth, although higher state prices have supported increased cane production in the region.

The USDA report highlights the challenges faced by India’s sugar industry in the current and upcoming marketing years, emphasizing the importance of weather conditions and disease management in determining sugar production levels.