Maize

Most components of the grain basket on domestic exchanges, except maize, were steady in trade. According to the government third advance estimate, India rabi maize output in 2016-17 is expected to be 6.97 million tonne, slightly higher than 6.89 million tonne estimated earlier. The country had produced 6.51 million tonne rabi maize in 2015-16. The June maize contract on the NCDEX traded down around 1% from previous close. Higher arrivals of maize due to peak season in Bihar, a major producing state, also weighed on the sentiment. The coarse grain sold in Purnea largely unchanged from previous close.

The National Cooperative Dairy Federation of India will buy 300 tonne of de-oiled rice bran and 50 tonne of maize through a reverse electronic auction on Thursday. The commodities, used as cattle feed, will be bought on behalf of Indian Immunologicals Limited. The federation, which has nearly 200 dairy cooperatives as members, has developed an online trading platform to purchase feed stock and sell dairy products.

The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, down from last year’s record high with a lower forecast area and yield. The yield projection of 170.7 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer weather, estimated using the 1988-2016-time period. The yield model includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation. The smaller corn crop is partly offset by the largest projected beginning stocks since 1988/89, leaving total corn supplies down from a year ago but still the second highest on record. Total U.S. corn use in 2017/18 is forecast to decline 2 percent from a year ago as a slight increase in domestic use is more than offset by lower exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected to rise 80 million bushels to 7.0 billion due to increased use of corn to produce ethanol for fuel and expected growth in non-ethanol FSI. Corn used to produce ethanol is up 50 million bushels, reflecting expectations of gasoline consumption growth, reduced sorghum used to produce ethanol, higher expected blending and continued global ethanol import demand. Projected feed and residual use declines as a smaller crop and increased use of ethanol by-products more than offsets growth in grain consuming animal units. U.S. corn exports are down 350 million bushels, as a 1.0-billion-bushel year-over-year increase in the combined corn exports of Brazil and Argentina during 2016/17 (local marketing years beginning in March 2017 and ending February 2018) is expected to cut into the 2017/18 U.S. shipping season. With total supply falling faster than use, 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks of corn are down 185 million bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint from 2016/17. The global coarse grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, increased use and sharply reduced ending stocks. Corn production is forecast down from a year ago, with the largest declines in China and the United States. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for the EU and Canada. Global corn use is up 9 million tons (1 percent), while global corn imports are projected to increase 7 million tons. Notable increases in corn imports include Vietnam, Egypt, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Iran. Global corn ending stocks are down from last year’s record high and if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The drop largely reflects forecast declines for China and the United States. For China, total corn supply is down 14 million tons in 2017/18, based on projected declines in beginning stocks and production. Area is reduced based on planting intentions published by the National Bureau of Statistics. On the demand side, feed and residual use is expected to increase based on continued relatively low internal market prices, efforts by the government to promote use of domestic supplies and reduced imports of corn substitutes. Projected FSI use is higher based on expectations of growth in domestic use and exports of corn-based industrial products.

India rabi maize output in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) is expected to be 6.97 millionn tonne, slightly higher than 6.89 millionn tonne estimated earlier. The country had produced 6.51 millionn tonne rabi maize in 2015-16. The rise in output this year can be attributed to higher acreage and improved yield. Arrivals of rabi maize are at their peak in the major producer Bihar and about 0.1 million bags (1bag=100kg) arrive in the Purnea market daily.

The June contract of maize on the NCDEX was up nearly 1% as investors continued covering their short positions after prices hit a more than one-month low on previous close. The June contract was up 0.8% from the previous close. In Bihar benchmark market of Purnea, maize was sold down 5-10 rupees from the previous day. Around 0.15 million bags (1bag=100kg) of maize arrived in Purnea and arrivals are expected to rise further till the end of May. Rabi maize prices in Telangana benchmark Nizamabad market also fell amid subdued demand from the poultry feed industry.

Celeres is projecting total Brazilian production at 97.71 MMT, up from the drought depressed 73.89 MMT last year. The trade average is 94.23 MMT according to composite of several surveys. The average to 2017/18 corn ending stocks is 2.189 billion bushels, but the range is all over the place at 1.8 to 2.5 billion.

The National Cooperative Dairy Federation of India buy 600 tonne tuesday and 3,300 tonne of maize through a reverse electronic auction on Wednesday. The commodity, used as cattle feed, will be bought on behalf of Rajasthan Cooperative Dairy Federation. The federation, which has nearly 200 dairy cooperatives as members, has developed an online trading platform to purchase feed stock and sell dairy products.

Prices of maize fell in Bihar benchmark Purnea market as arrivals are at their peak. About 100,000 bags (1bag=100kg) of maize arrive in Purnea daily and arrivals are likely to continue till the end of this month. The coarse grain was selling down 20-25 rupees from previous close. Maize futures on the NCDEX also fell and the most active June contract ended down 0.8% from previous close.

Maize rabi prices drifted lower by Rs 20 per quintal in futures trading after speculators shrank their holdings amid a weak trend at the physical markets on subdued demand. Tracking a weak trend at the spot markets on low demand from poultry feed makers, led to the fall in maize prices at futures trade. NCDEX maize for delivery this month dipped by 1.51 per cent per quintal, in an open interest of 170 lots. Maize for delivery for most-active June contracts fell by 0.76 per cent per quintal, having an open interest of 8,220 lots.

Prices of maize were unchanged in the wholesale markets of Purnea in Bihar and Devangere in Karnataka because of thin trade. Arrivals in Purnea were estimated at 3,000 vehicles, each carrying 8-9 tonne of the coarse grain. Arrivals were unchanged at 1,000 bags, each with 100 kg of the coarse grain. Traders say that prices of maize are unlikely to rise in the near term as arrivals in the market are adequate. The farm ministry has pegged India maize output at 26.15 million tonne in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun), up from 22.57 million tonne in the previous year.

The National Cooperative Dairy Federation of India bought 30,000 tonne maize through an online auction. The commodity, which is used as cattle feed, was bought on behalf of the Karnataka Milk Federation. The federation, which has nearly 200 dairy cooperatives as its members, has developed an online trading platform to purchase feed stock and sell dairy products.

Maize prices fell on the NCDEX, taking cues from losses in spot markets. The most active June contract ended down 0.1% from the previous close. Prices fell in spot markets due to subdued demand for the coarse grain from major poultry and starch feed firms. In Nizamabad, maize was sold down 10-15 rupees from previous close.

Bihar has raised its output estimate for 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) to 1.72 million tonne from 1.66 million tonne. The state estimate for kharif maize output is 672,848 tonne, and that for the rabi crop is 1.05 million tonne. A nearly 4% upward revision in the state maize output estimate can be attributed to a rise in yield to 2,526 kg per ha from the earlier view of 2,286 kg.

Kharif foodgrains output is expected to rise to 10.08 million tonne from 7.66 million tonne last year.

Maize futures contracts ended flat on the NCDEX amid lack of sufficient cues. Maize prices rose in wholesale markets of Bihar Purnea because demand improved after better quality crop started arriving in markets. In Purnea, the coarse grain was sold up 20 rupees from the previous day. Arrivals at the Gulabbagh mandi in Purnea, rose to 3,500 tonne up from 3,200 tonne. Better quality maize started arriving in markets as rains stopped because of which, demand is increasing. On the other hand, prices of maize fell in Nizamabad, Telangana, due to subdued demand for the coarse grain from major poultry and starch feed firms, In Nizamabad, maize was sold down 10-15 rupees from previous close.

India rabi maize output in 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) is seen rising 14.7% on year to 7.9 million tonne. Acreage under the coarse grain has risen 11.7% on year to 2.1 million hactare in 2016-17, with gains in Bihar. Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra because of good water availability in these states. In Tamil Nadu, however, area under the crop declined because of prolonged drought conditions. The brokerage has pegged average yields at 3.9 tonne per ha, up 5.4% on year. Output in Bihar, the largest producer of rabi maize producer, is seen at 2.8 million tonne compared with 2.4 million tonne a year ago. Despite a rise in output, export demand for maize is expected to remain largely unchanged at 500,400 tonne. In 2015-16, India exported 500,600 tonne of maize.

The June contract of maize on the NCDEX hit a one-month low in early trade. The June contract was down 1.2% from the previous close. Subdued demand from major poultry and starch feed firms weighed on maize prices in spot markets. In the benchmark market of Nizamabad. Telangana, maize was sold down 10-15 rupees from previous close. Higher arrivals at major spot markets in Bihar also weighed on futures of the commodity. In Purnea, Bihar, the coarse grain was sold down 20 rupees from the previous day. Arrivals at the Gulabbagh mandi in Purnea were at 3,200 tonne up from 2,800 tonne on Tuesday.

The National Cooperative Dairy Federation of India will buy 30,000 tonne of maize through a reverse electronic auction on Friday. The commodity, used as cattle feed, bought on behalf of Karnataka Milk Federation. The dairy body, which has nearly 200 dairy cooperatives as members, has developed an online trading platform to purchase feed stock and sell dairy products.

Prices of maize fell in the key wholesale market of Purnea in Bihar as arrivals picked up. In the Gulab Bagh market of Purnea, the coarse grain was sold down 10-15 rupees from Previous close. Arrivals at the mandi were estimated at 3,000 tonne, up from 2,600 tn. Higher arrivals of maize owing to a record production of maize this year is keeping the sentiments bearish for the rabi crop. Farm ministry has pegged India maize output at 26.15 million tonne in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun), up from 22.57 million tonne a year ago.

The June contract of maize on the NCDEX fell as investors booked profits after prices rose. the June contract was trading down 1.7% from the previous close. Prices had risen due to firm demand in spot markets amid lower supplies. Maize prices also tracked losses in wholesale markets. In Bihar key Purnea market, the coarse grain was sold down 10-15 rupees from the previous day, Maize prices in Telangana benchmark market of Nizamabad, however, rose amid a decline in supplies and firm demand from the poultry feed sector. Arrivals of the coarse grain more than halved in Nizamabad today to 600 bags (1bag=100kg).