Soybean

China’s imports of soybeans from the U.S. in January fell 14 percent from the same month a year ago, as Brazil grabbed a larger slice of the world’s biggest market for the oilseed with higher-protein beans. China imported 5.82 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. in January, equal to 67 percent of all imports. In 2017, U.S. beans accounted for 88.5 percent of the January total.

The soybean harvest in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, the largest producer of the oilseed, reached 58.3% of the planted surface. In one week, there was an advance of 13.34 percentage points, but there is still a delay compared to the previous crop season. In one week, there was an advance of 13.34 percentage points, but there is still a delay compared to the previous crop season.

The May contract of soybean on the CBOT hit a one-year high of $10.5950 per bushel on Monday because of lingering concerns of dry weather in Argentina, which may result in lower crop in the country. The contract, however, ended slightly lower because of profit booking at $10.46 a bushel, down 1.50 cents.

The US share of Chinese soybean demand in the first month of 2018 fell to its lowest level for years, with US farmers taking a 68% share of exports versus 88% a year earlier and 81% in 2016.

Prices of soybean in Indore were marginally up because of lower arrivals and gains in the global market. CBOT May soybean hit a one-year high of $10.5950 a bushel on Monday due to worries of persistent dry weather in Argentina, the largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil. India is one of the largest importer of soyoil from Argentina. The most active March contract on NCDEX was up 0.6%.

The May contract of soybean on CBOT hit a one-year high of $10.55 a bushel due to concern that prevailing dry weather in Argentina may hit the yield of the country’s soybean crop. The most-active May contract of soybean on CBOT traded at $10.5350 a bushel, up 0.6% from the previous close.

Rise in supply weighs on Jaipur mustard seed prices. Prices of mustard seed down in Jaipur, Rajasthan, due to a rise in arrivals amid subdued demand from domestic oil millers and crushers. Arrivals in Rajasthan were estimated at 60,000 bags (1 bag = 85 kg), up 10,000 bags. A decline in the acreage of the oilseed, however, cushioned the fall in prices.

The prices of soybeans have improved domestically in Argentina. The spot deals quoted at US$ 303.9 per metric ton, marks a bullish trend from the last few days amid the drought in the country. Argentina soybean forecast to 47 million MT, BAGE (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange). The Rosario Grain Exchange expects the 17/18 Argentine crop at 46.5 MMT.

Prices of soybean in Indore were up, tracking gains on CBOT. Lower supplies in the market and hot-and-dry weather in Argentina is seen supporting domestic soybean prices. Although arrivals are steady in the state, they are insufficient to meet demand.

Soybean contracts on the CBOT were down because of profit booking by the investors ahead of the annual USDA conference. The most active May futures on the CBOT was down 0.3% at $10.4225 a bushel. The annual USDA conference will release acreage estimates for upcoming US crop planting at its two-day meeting. Profit booking was also seen in the contract after it hit an 11-month high of $10.50 per bushel due to concern over hot and dry weather in Argentina which may hit the output there.

The Argentinian soybean crush for January was reported at 2.8 million mt, up 25% from December, but down 8% year-on-year. The figures come at a time when private analysts are estimating a steep fall in Argentina’s crop production, with many now predicting the nation will produce 50 million mt or less, down at least 15% on the previous year. However, the 2018 January crush was up 10% from the five-year average and the third highest recorded for Argentina in 10 years.

The outlook for global soyabean production in 2017/18 is cut by 2m t m/m, to 347m, down by 1% y/y, including a reduced figure for Argentina. However, due to an increased estimate for carry-ins, supplies are forecast higher m/m and, with uptake reduced, carryovers are raised to 44.1m t, slightly lower y/y. Trade is little changed m/m, at a peak of 153m t, up by 4% y/y. The world harvested area is tentatively projected at a new high in 2018/19, including gains in Brazil and the USA. World soyabean output is forecast at 347m t in 2017/18, only 1% lower than the prior year’s peak as record crops in North America mostly compensate for reduced outturns elsewhere. Total use is predicted at a new high, with aggregate end-season stocks likely to fall. However, major exporters’ inventories are seen broadly steady y/y as heavy accumulation in the USA offsets significant falls in Brazil and Argentina. Trade could be a new high on bigger sales to Asia, while a modest recovery in deliveries to the EU is expected. The Council’s outlook for soyameal trade is for a record of 63.8m t, up by 3% y/y on increased demand from buyers in Asia and Africa. Given prospects for a disappointing soyabean crop, availabilities in Argentina, the world’s dominant supplier, are expected to tighten, with exports seen down by 6% y/y. However, this should be outweighed by bigger shipments by the USA and Brazil. Concerning tentative prospects for 2018/19, the world soyabean harvested area is projected to be up 2% y/y, including gains in the USA and Brazil. Trade will again be shaped by China’s appetite for imports

Futures contract of soybean on NCDEX fell as investors booked profits after the government failed to announce the much expected incentives for export of soybean products. The market had widely expected the government to increase the incentive given to soybean cake exporters in the form of export credit to 10% from the current 7.5% to encourage exports and boost domestic prices. Fall in soybean contracts on CBOT also weighed on domestic prices. The most-active March contract of soybean on NCDEX traded down 1% from previous close.

Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop is expected to reach 115.6 million tons, a record volume, 1.2% above the previous record last year of 114.2 million tons.Total planted area with soybeans in Brazil reached 35.25 million hectares in the current crop, 1.44 million hectares more than the previous, which compensated for an expected smaller average yield per hectare.

Export inspections totaled just 960,066 MT during the week that ended February 15. That was a drop of 29.3% from the week prior and 12.14% lower than the same week in 2017.

Futures contracts of soybean rose on the NCDEX due to lower supplies coupled with firmness in the parent contract on then CBOT. The most-active March contract of soybean on the NCDEX traded at 3,780 rupees per 100 kg, up 0.4% from the previous close.

Indonesia is increasing its use of soybeans for feed in part because of the corn import ban that has made corn prices among the highest in the world. The estimate of soybean for feed use in 2016-17 was revised up to 150,000 tonnes and for 2017-18 it was revised to 160,000 tonnes.

Chicago soybean futures rose to a seven-month high with the market climbing for five out of six sessions, buoyed by poor rains over the weekend in Argentina’s drought-hit oilseed growing areas. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade added 0.9 percent to $10.30-3/4 a bushel. The drought afflicting Argentina since November has shrivelled soybean yields to the point that analysts and farmers have slashed harvest estimates by about 10 million tonnes, with final crop forecasts consolidating under the 50 million tonne mark.

India soybean up 2% on likely hike in oilcake export sops.

Brazil’s soybean output is seen at 112.5 mln tn in 2017-18 (Feb-Jan), down 1.3% on year. Brazil produced 114.0 mln tn of the oilseed in 2016-17. Lower average yields in Brazil following dry weather in the southern parts is expected to pull down the production this year