Soybean

Brazil’s soybean output is seen at 112.5 mln tn in 2017-18 (Feb-Jan), down 1.3% on year. Brazil produced 114.0 mln tn of the oilseed in 2016-17. Lower average yields in Brazil following dry weather in the southern parts is expected to pull down the production this year

U.S. soybean futures climbed to their highest level in almost seven months on Thursday, propped up by fears that adverse weather conditions in Argentina. Argentina could harvest fewer than 50 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2017-18 crop year as a prolonged drought looks set to continue harming yields.The dryness in the heart of Argentina’s Pampas grains belt is likely to persist through the second half of February. The most-active soybean futures for March delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 0.3 percent at $10.19-3/4 a bushel.

Private exporters announced the cancellation of close to half a million mt of soybean export volumes to China. However, the news failed to dent the upward momentum seen on soybean futures contracts, which received fresh impetus over the weekend on a lack of rain in Argentina. A total of 455,000 mt of soybean exports were cancelled. Although much of the volume was offset by export sales of 314,000 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations.

Futures contracts of soybean on NCDEX rose around 2% due to concerns over fall in Argentina’s output due to persistent dry weather in the country. The most active March contract on the CBOT was at $10.0125 a bushel, up 1.9% from the previous close. US Department of Agriculture, in its February report, lowered its production estimate of soybean in Argentina to 54 mln tn, down 2 mln tn from its previous forecast. Weakness in dollar index is also seen supporting prices of soybean in the global market.

A dearth of rain in the Las Pampas and northern areas of the country has prompted the Buenos Aires Grain exchange to cut its forecast of soybean production 1 million mt to 50 million mt. It is the second successive week that BAGE has cut its estimate of soybean production. Last week it cut its estimate to 51.5 million from 54 million mt.

The Soybean Processors Association of India today lowered the country soybean output estimate for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) to 8.35 mln tn from 9.15 mln tn pegged earlier. The association has revised its estimate downwards due to lower production in key growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Soybean output in Madhya Pradesh, the largest grower, was pegged at 4.2 mln tn in 2017-18, down from 5.4 mln tn in the previous year. Production is also seen lower at 2.9 mln tn in Maharashtra, against 3.6 mln tn last year, it said. The oilseed production in Rajasthan was pegged at 750,000 tn, down from 981,000 tn. Soymeal exports in 2017-2018 have been pegged at 1.3 mln tn, down from 2.0 mln tn last year. The estimated soybean arrival by January at 5.3 mln tn against 4.3 mln tn a year ago while stocks with farmers, plants and traders were seen at 4.5 mln tn.

Brazil is on pace in 2017-18 to produce its second largest soybean crop ever.The country is forecast to produce 112.5 tonnes, a decline of 1.3% from last year’s record output. Planted area in 2017-18 is pegged at 35 million hectares, a 3% increase from the previous growing season. Despite the higher planted area, the lower forecast production is a result of lower yields compared to a year ago as a result of weather issues in the south. National yields are predicted to reach 3.21 tonnes per hectare. The report also said Brazil will sustain its position as the largest soybean exporter in the world. Soybean exports for 2017-18 are forecast at 65 million tonnes, about 5% lower compared to 2016-17.

Futures contracts of soybean hit 3% upper limit on NCDEX due to low supply of the commodity in spot markets. The most-active March contract was at 3,668 rupees per 100 kg, up 100 rupees. Gains in soybean contracts on CBOT are also seen supporting domestic oilseed prices. Prices of CBOT soybean rose due to concerns over dry weather in Argentina which may affect output. Oilseed prices in the benchmark market of Indore increased on anticipation of a fall in arrivals in coming days.

Soybean contracts on CBOT were up as dry weather in Argentina re-emerged, raising worries about decline in the output. The most active March contract on the CBOT was at $9.9275 a bushel, up 0.7% from the previous close. Dry weather in Argentina, the third largest producer of the oilseed, is estimated to impact the output there

Futures contracts of soybean hit a two-week low of 3,539 rupees per 100 kg due to subdued demand from oil millers. The most-active February contract was down 1.5% from the previous close. In the past few days, soybean prices rose more than that expected in the spot market and therefore, now there is some selling pressure. Weakness in the soybean contracts on the CBOT is also seen weighing on prices.

Soybeans down with forecasts of rains in Argentina’s parched farming areas putting pressure on prices. Argentina drought reduces 3 MMT of soybean output estimate.

Soybean output estimate in India for 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) has been revised downward to 8.0 mln tn currently from the previous estimate of 8.5 mln tn. Several indicators showed that actual supply of soybean is lower than thought of before in India. This is also reflected in some recent appreciation in domestic prices. The crop is also way lower than last year’s production of 10.5 mln tn. Argentina, the world’s third largest grower, is constantly facing dry weather conditions, which may take a toll on the soybean crop from the beginning.

Futures contracts of soybean gave up earlier gains on the NCDEX and fell due to weak buying in spot markets. Soybean futures rose earlier after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in the Union Budget for 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), announced that minimum support price for rabi and upcoming kharif crops will be 1.5 times higher than the cost of production. The most-active February contract was down 0.6% from previous close.

Dutch bank Rabobank cut its forecast for Argentine corn production by 2 million mt to 39 million mt on Tuesday, with its soybean forecast also falling to 51.5 million mt, making the bank’s analysts some of the most pessimistic in the market. Persistent dry conditions during pollination across Argentina have impacted the early planted corn crop, which has led to the write down in production. The bank’s production estimate is now 3 million mt lower than USDA forecasts and lower than almost all other analysts.

Wet, cloudy weather is dragging down soybean yields in Brazil’s second largest soybean producing state of Parana, local farmers. Brazil is coming off a record 2016/17 soybean harvest of 114 million mt that was aided by near perfect weather nationally. However, after irregular rains delayed the start of planting of the current crop in late 2017, most forecasts projected a drop in yields for the 2017/18 harvest. In Parana, which last year produced 18 million mt of beans, or 16% of the total crop, overcast skies and heavy rain have set in since the New Year.

Futures contracts of soybean rose on the NCDEX on concerns over a likely fall in arrivals in the coming days. The most active February contract was up 29 rupees. Talks of a hike in duty on the edible oil are also seen lifting prices.

Argentinian production of soybean is to hit a five-year low of 52 million mt in the 2017/18 crop year, as yields are expected to fall to 13% to 2.9 tonnes per hectare. A lack of rainfall over the past two months has been the main reason for the yield write-down, which will see production fall 9% below the previous crop year and 8% on the previous five-year average. The board expects the planting area to be 18.5 million hectares, although that figure is down on the 18.8 million hectares that were expected to be planted due to a lack of rain. The damaging effect of the moisture deficit is not limited to the smaller area planted, but the emergence of seedlings in these conditions have already forced us to discount potential yields in the new campaign.

Prices of soybean in Indore, Madhya Pradesh fell as demand from domestic oil millers. A rise in arrivals also put pressure on soybean prices. Supplies have increased because farmers have offloaded more to avail better prices.

The most active February contract traded at 3,743 rupees per 100 kg, down 1.8% from the previous close, after hitting the 3% lower circuit. A 20,070-tn fall in open interest of February contract to 202,500 tn indicated profit booking. The contract hit the high on reports Madhya Pradesh revised its production view downward.

Madhya Pradesh has lowered its estimate for soybean production in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) to 5.3 mln tn from 6.9 mln tn projected in the first advanced estimate. A downward revision in soybean production was mainly due to a dry spell during the growth stage that adversely affected the yield.