Sugar

Prices of sugar rose in the key wholesale markets of Mumbai as demand improved ahead of the festival of Diwali. The rise in prices of the sweetener in Mumbai can also be attributed to the increase in transportation charges due to lack of vehicles. There are no return goods available from Mumbai, unlike other cities. So, the trucks and lorries which bring sugar from Kolhapur prefer cities like Hyderabad.

Dwarikesh Sugar Industries Ltd expects sales to rise by up to 15 percent in the 2017/18 crop year as production in Uttar Pradesh could jump to a record high. The state’s output could jump 14 percent from a year earlier to a record 10 million tonnes. Dwarikesh Sugar produced 330,000 tonnes of the sweetener in the 2016/17 crop year that ended on Sept. 30.

Rabobank raised its forecast for the world sugar output surplus in the newly-started season. The bank raised to 4.5m tonnes, from 2.7m tonnes, its estimate for the world production surplus in 2017-18, which began at the start of this month. The revision reflected in part improved expectations for output in Brazil, where the bank quoted an assessment from Unica, the cane industry group, that output in the key Centre South region is now projected to exceed last season’s 35.6m tonnes. Initially, Unica had forecast output of 35.2m tonnes from the Centre South, which is responsible for more than 90% of Brazil’s total sugar output.

USDA Europe Union bureau expects sugar output in the region rising to 20.1 million tonne in 2017-18 from 16.5 million tonne produced in 2016-17. The estimate is also higher than USDA’s official estimate of 18.6 million tonne. USDA’s EU bureau has also estimated exports from the region higher on year at 2.5 million tonne. The expectations of a rise in sugar production in EU and export quantities can be attributed to the abolition of output quota in September.

India sugar output in October is likely to achieve only 40 per cent of the earlier assured quantity. Most mills in UP are now looking to start the crushing season by the last week of October, anticipating a labour shortage ahead of Diwali. With bumper cane availability, the UP government estimates a 10 per cent rise in output this season at 10 million tonnes (mt), a fourth of India’s overall sugar production estimate of 25.1 mt for October 2017-September 2018. Sugar mills in Maharashtra are planning to start the new season from November 1. The delay was aimed to avoid problems in harvesting of cane due to heavy rainfall in September which left fields muddy. Also, actual maturing of cane takes place in October and November.

Prices of sugar rose in most key wholesale markets of the country due to higher demand ahead of the festival of Diwali. Sugar prices rose in Mumbai as well, as transportation charges have increased due to lack of vehicles. Traders are bullish on sugar prices in the near term due to expectations of further rise in demand from bulk buyers such as sweets makers ahead of Diwali, which celebrated on Oct 19 this year.

Sugar output in the country in October is seen at around 300,000-350,000 tonne, lower than 800,000 tonne pegged earlier, as mills in Maharashtra have deferred cane crushing operations to Nov 1.

India is likely to witness surplus sugar production during the next two years on account of a bumper sugarcane crop. According to OP Dhanuka, CMD, Riga Sugar Company Ltd, production of sugar in 2017-18 marketing year (October-September) is likely to be close to 25.5 million tonnes (mt), a growth of 25 per cent over last year on higher sugarcane area. The country’s annual consumption is pegged at 24 mt. It is estimated that the area under sugarcane cultivation is higher at 49.88-lakh hectares this year compared to 45.64-lakh hectares in 2016-17.

Encouraged by a sharp increase in realisation through last year, jaggery manufacturing units (termed kolhus) say they’re equipped for a price battle with sugar mills on sugarcane purchase. Sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the top two producing states, have announced an early start to crushing this year (the sugar season begins October 1). This was reportedly to get the early variety of cane, normally supplied to kolhus. Jaggery makers traditionally start their operations in September with this early variety, which offers lower yield than the matured type. Crushing of this type of cane, therefore, becomes uneconomical for sugar mills.

Sugar prices settled quiet at the wholesale market in the national capital on sporadic buying support amid adequate stocks availability. Besides scattered buying by stockists and retailers, sufficient position of stocks in the market, kept the sweetener’s prices unaltered.

Consumer prices of sugar are projected to reduce substantially on increased supplies in the global market after the European Union (EU) formally scrapped quotas on the production and sale of the commodity after nearly 50 years. The end of the quotas means that there are no further limits to production or exports, allowing production to adjust to market demand both within and outside the EU. Producers will now have the opportunity to expand their trade on global markets,” Phil Hogan, EU Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development, said in a statement following the close of production quotas on September 30. European Commission showed the end of the system will trigger a jump in sugar production. It said that between 2016 and 2026 the bloc’s sugar production will increase by six per cent while production of an alternative sweetener, Isoglucose, could triple from 700,000 tonnes to 2.3 million tonnes. Imports will, on the other hand, continue to drop from 3 to 3.5 million to 1.8 million tonnes and exports are expected to increase from 1.3 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes. For the upcoming harvest, no longer bound by the limitations of the quota, an increase in production of roughly 20 per cent (20.1 million tonnes) is expected. This increase results from both an increase in area and higher yields because of good climatic conditions.

The import of raw sugar at 25% duty has become unviable for millers due to the recent weakness of rupee against the US dollar. The government had, on Sep 8, allowed sugar mills and refineries to import 0.3 MMT raw sugar under tariff rate quota at a concessional duty of 25% for a period of 60 days in a bid to tide over any shortages in the run-up to Diwali. Importing sugar was viable when the government had issued a notification allowing imports.

On the back of higher sugarcane acreage this year and record sugarcane payments during 2016-17 crushing season, Uttar Pradesh government has projected sugar production of almost 10 MT in the coming season. This would be almost 15 percent higher compared to sugar production of about 8.75 MT during 2016-17 and total sugarcane payables of Rs 25,386 crore last year. During 2017-18 season, we are confident UP sugar output would touch the record level of a crore tonnes (10 MT).

Jaggery producers to compete with India sugar mills to buy early cane.

Delhi sugar prices end quiet on some support.

End of EU sugar quota signals dip in consumer prices.

Weak rupee against dollar makes imports unviable for India sugar mills.