Sugar

The government has allowed import of 300,000 tonne raw sugar at a basic customs duty of 25% under the tariff rate quote for 60 days. The import of 300,000 tonne sugar has been allowed through the ports of Tuticorin and Chennai in Tamil Nadu, Karaikal in Puducherry, Mangalore in Karnataka, and Kakinada, Visakhapatnam and Gang avaram in Andhra Pradesh. Since the import has been allowed under the tariff rate quota, millers and refiners have to convert the imported raw sugar into refined or white sugar within 30 days from the date of bill of entry.

Sugar output in Bihar is likely to increase to 550,000 tonne in the new season that starts October, marginally higher than this year’s 525,000 tonne. Floods in many parts of the state have hit output expectations for the upcoming season. Initially, the sugar output was expected at a record high of 625,000 tonne, as the cane acreage was very good, and farmers in most parts of the state had switched to high yielding cane varieties.

Sugar output in Karnataka for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) is expected to be at 2.0-2.3 million tonne compared with 2.1 million tonne produced in 2016-17. India Sugar Mills Association revised its estimate for sugar production in Karnataka for the upcoming season to 2.3 million tonne from 2.5 million tonne projected earlier. The sugar body has revised the output view downwards as the satellite mapping showed that the area under cane in the state was lower than what was expected. Production of sugar may also get hit in 2018-19 owing to scanty rainfall in the state this year.

India Sugar Mills Association is likely to maintain its sugar output estimate for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) at 25.1 million tonne. There is slight reduction in Karnataka’s output and a rise is seen in sugar production in Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh is the top producer of sugarcane in the country and along with Maharashtra accounts for half of India’s total sugar output.

Uttar Pradesh official:’17-18 cane area seen 2.3 million ha vs 2.1 million. Sugar output in Uttar Pradesh is likely to rise to a record 10.3 million tonne in the next season starting October from 8.77 million tonne year ago. Uttar Pradesh is the top producer of sugarcane in the country and along with Maharashtra accounts for half of India’s total sugar output. Last year, cane area in Uttar Pradesh was 20.5 lakh (2.05 million ha). This year there is an increase of 10-12%, and area is seen around 23 lakh (2.3 million ha). Sowing of sugarcane is almost at its ending stage and farmers so far have already planted nearly 2.3 million ha of sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh, up 5.1% on year.

Mills across the country are likely to produce around 400,000 tonne sugar in October. Earlier, Indian Sugar Mills Association had estimated production in October at 800,000 tonne, due to expectations that crushing of sugarcane would start earlier than usual this year. The Centre had asked millers across the country to begin cane crushing operations for the 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season early in October, in a bid to tide over likely shortages during the festival season.

Tamil Nadu Civil Supplies Corp has invited bids to buy 40,000 tonne of S-30 grade sugar. Bids must be submitted on Sep 21. The government is procuring sugar from the open market for supply under the public distribution system.

Prices of sugar fell in the wholesale market of Mumbai because of weak demand and on the reports of probable sugar imports by the government. Prices in Tamil Nadu are high due to depletion in stocks and lower expected production in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep).

State-owned Salt Trading Corporation (STC) has imported 25,000 tonnes of sugar from India in a bid to regulate market prices and ensure smooth supply during the upcoming festive season. The shipment amounts to half of the 50,000 tonnes of sugar that STC plans to import by November. The remaining amount will be imported in 10 consignments of 2,500 tonnes each. STC started importing sugar in a bid to end the private sector’s monopoly and make it available at reasonable prices and maintain adequate stocks to forestall possible shortages as output has dropped in both India and Nepal this year.

The government is likely to allow import of 300,000 tonnes of raw sugar at 25-30 per cent import duty. A notification on the matter is likely by Wednesday. Currently, sugar attracts an import duty of 50 per cent, making imports commercially unviable. The government is likely to soon take a decision on import of sugar to augment domestic supplies, as stocks are expected to fall to critically low levels. The imports then were also subject to zonal quantity restrictions. The government had allowed import of 300,000 tonnes duty-free raw sugar in the south zone via Tuticorin, Chennai, Mangaluru, and Kakinada ports, 150,000 tonnes in the west zone via Kandla and Mumbai ports and 50,000 tonnes in the east zone through Haldia and Paradeep ports. The government had later added Visakhapatnam and Gang avaram ports in Andhra Pradesh and Karaikal port in Puducherry to the list of ports where imports were allowed.

Prices of sugar fell in the key wholesale markets of Delhi and Muzaffarnagar due to fear of government allowing import of raw sugar to tide over any shortages. Sugar prices remained unavailable in Maharashtra because markets were shut for Ganpati Visarjan. The government is likely to allow import of 300,000 tonne of raw sugar at 25-30% import duty.

Sugar mills across the country are likely to produce over 800,000 tonne sugar in October. Usually, sugar mills produce about 300,000 tonne or less sugar in October. The Centre has asked millers across the country to begin cane crushing operations for the 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season early in October, in a bid to tide over likely shortages during the festival season. ISMA has estimated mills in Uttar Pradesh produce about 293,000 tonne sugar and those in Maharashtra about 391,000 tonne of the sweetener in October. Sugar output in October is projected at 6,000 tonne for Tamil Nadu, at 91,000 tonne for Karnataka and at 22,000 tonne for Gujarat. Crushing at almost all sugar mills across the country would be in full swing by Nov 1. Therefore, we can expect to get another 16-17 lac tons (1.6-1.7 million tonne) sugar in the first 15 days of November.

ICRA estimated the state’s sugar production to stand at 9.7 million tonnes (mt) in the upcoming season this year. Meanwhile, data compiled by the All India Sugar Trade Association pegged the state’s sugar output at 8.7 mt during 2016-17. This indicates mills in UP would produce 11.5 per cent more sugar in the coming season or nearly four times the state’s own consumption. Domestic production for the full season during 2018 is likely to increase by 18-20 per cent to 24-24.5 mt, driven principally by a recovery in cane availability in Maharashtra and North Karnataka, besides support from monsoons.

When it comes to sugar, the government does not want to take any chances. The food minister tweeted that the government decide on sugar imports soon. That’s a signal for more supply and could be a negative sign for prices.

Stocks of sugar companies in Tamil Nadu are taking a beating on the exchanges — they are close to hitting 52-week lows in the backdrop of an all-time poor performance anticipated in the coming season. Stock prices sliding as the 2016-17 sugar season comes to a close this month. Following an extended dry spell in Tamil Nadu, production has been steadily dropping in recent years and the coming 2017-18 (October to September) season could mark a historic low with capacity utilisation in the vicinity of about 25 per cent, on installed capacity. From a sugar production of 23.79 lakh tonnes in 2011-12, Tamil Nadu’s output has dropped to 10.45 lakh tonnes in 2016-17 and is estimated to hit a low of about 5.7 lakh tonnes in the coming season. This is just about four months’ consumption for the State. Mills elsewhere in UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka are set to benefit from the unfolding scenario.

Prices of sugar fell in the key wholesale markets of Delhi and Kolhapur due to sluggish demand from bulk buyers. While demand is already poor, there is selling pressure on mills due to imposition of stock limit. So, they are quoting lower prices.

Global prices of raw sugar are likely to remain high in the long-term due to low availability of the sweetener. Raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange are now trading below the ethanol parity, directly reducing the availability of sugar. A fall in prices of sugar incentivises millers to shift to ethanol production. Mills in key cane-producing countries like Brazil have a choice between producing sugar or ethanol. The combined effect of sugar trading below the ethanol parity and increased probability of rainfall (in Brazil) would likely cause the sugar mix to swerve in favor of ethanol.