Sugar

Some sugar mills in western Uttar Pradesh are likely to begin cane crushing operations for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) on Oct 10. Mills will halt cane processing for a week on account of Diwali, scheduled Oct 19, and resume crushing operations by Oct 25. Most mills in the state are expected to begin crushing sugarcane by late October.

Sugar output in Thailand for 2017-18 (Nov-Oct) is expected to rise to 11.5-11.8 million tonne from 10 million tonne a year ago. The rise in sugar production can be attributed to increase in area under cane in the country and favorable weather conditions. Acreage has increased this season as cane prices for 2016-17 were good. The area under sugarcane in the country in 2017-18 is estimated at about 1.77-1.79 million hectares and the cane output is seen at 107-110 million tonne, higher from 92.90 million tonne produced a year ago.

Unusually dry weather in Brazil’s center-south sugar-producing region is likely to cut the total cane output per hectare for the rest of 2017 and in 2018.

Raw sugar futures on ICE settled higher, boosted by a weak dollar and dryer-than-normal weather in Brazil. October raw sugar settled up 0.4 percent, at 14.09 cents per lb, 2.5 percent higher on the week. The market was supported by the weak dollar while speculators also continued to reduce a large net short position.

Brazilian court has suspended the judicial auction of a sugar mill owned by India’s Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd scheduled for September 4, after a request from state bank BNDES.

Prices of sugar were down in key wholesale markets across the country as the market factored in the import of sugar at a concessional duty in the next few days. Expectations of a record high production in Uttar Pradesh also weighed on the sentiment in north Indian markets. Sugar prices fell by 10-15 rupees per 100 kg in the spot markets of Delhi and Muzaffarnagar. Sluggish demand due to “pitrapaksha”, an inauspicious period in the Hindu calendar for new purchases, is also seen weighing on prices.

The government has allowed import of 300,000 tonne raw sugar at a basic customs duty of 25% under the tariff rate quote for 60 days. The import of 300,000 tonne sugar has been allowed through the ports of Tuticorin and Chennai in Tamil Nadu, Karaikal in Puducherry, Mangalore in Karnataka, and Kakinada, Visakhapatnam and Gang avaram in Andhra Pradesh. Since the import has been allowed under the tariff rate quota, millers and refiners have to convert the imported raw sugar into refined or white sugar within 30 days from the date of bill of entry.

Sugar output in Bihar is likely to increase to 550,000 tonne in the new season that starts October, marginally higher than this year’s 525,000 tonne. Floods in many parts of the state have hit output expectations for the upcoming season. Initially, the sugar output was expected at a record high of 625,000 tonne, as the cane acreage was very good, and farmers in most parts of the state had switched to high yielding cane varieties.

Sugar output in Karnataka for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) is expected to be at 2.0-2.3 million tonne compared with 2.1 million tonne produced in 2016-17. India Sugar Mills Association revised its estimate for sugar production in Karnataka for the upcoming season to 2.3 million tonne from 2.5 million tonne projected earlier. The sugar body has revised the output view downwards as the satellite mapping showed that the area under cane in the state was lower than what was expected. Production of sugar may also get hit in 2018-19 owing to scanty rainfall in the state this year.

India Sugar Mills Association is likely to maintain its sugar output estimate for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) at 25.1 million tonne. There is slight reduction in Karnataka’s output and a rise is seen in sugar production in Uttar Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh is the top producer of sugarcane in the country and along with Maharashtra accounts for half of India’s total sugar output.

Uttar Pradesh official:’17-18 cane area seen 2.3 million ha vs 2.1 million. Sugar output in Uttar Pradesh is likely to rise to a record 10.3 million tonne in the next season starting October from 8.77 million tonne year ago. Uttar Pradesh is the top producer of sugarcane in the country and along with Maharashtra accounts for half of India’s total sugar output. Last year, cane area in Uttar Pradesh was 20.5 lakh (2.05 million ha). This year there is an increase of 10-12%, and area is seen around 23 lakh (2.3 million ha). Sowing of sugarcane is almost at its ending stage and farmers so far have already planted nearly 2.3 million ha of sugarcane in Uttar Pradesh, up 5.1% on year.

Mills across the country are likely to produce around 400,000 tonne sugar in October. Earlier, Indian Sugar Mills Association had estimated production in October at 800,000 tonne, due to expectations that crushing of sugarcane would start earlier than usual this year. The Centre had asked millers across the country to begin cane crushing operations for the 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season early in October, in a bid to tide over likely shortages during the festival season.

Tamil Nadu Civil Supplies Corp has invited bids to buy 40,000 tonne of S-30 grade sugar. Bids must be submitted on Sep 21. The government is procuring sugar from the open market for supply under the public distribution system.

Prices of sugar fell in the wholesale market of Mumbai because of weak demand and on the reports of probable sugar imports by the government. Prices in Tamil Nadu are high due to depletion in stocks and lower expected production in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep).

Sugar mills across the country are likely to produce over 800,000 tonne sugar in October. Usually, sugar mills produce about 300,000 tonne or less sugar in October. The Centre has asked millers across the country to begin cane crushing operations for the 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season early in October, in a bid to tide over likely shortages during the festival season. ISMA has estimated mills in Uttar Pradesh produce about 293,000 tonne sugar and those in Maharashtra about 391,000 tonne of the sweetener in October. Sugar output in October is projected at 6,000 tonne for Tamil Nadu, at 91,000 tonne for Karnataka and at 22,000 tonne for Gujarat. Crushing at almost all sugar mills across the country would be in full swing by Nov 1. Therefore, we can expect to get another 16-17 lac tons (1.6-1.7 million tonne) sugar in the first 15 days of November.

ICRA estimated the state’s sugar production to stand at 9.7 million tonnes (mt) in the upcoming season this year. Meanwhile, data compiled by the All India Sugar Trade Association pegged the state’s sugar output at 8.7 mt during 2016-17. This indicates mills in UP would produce 11.5 per cent more sugar in the coming season or nearly four times the state’s own consumption. Domestic production for the full season during 2018 is likely to increase by 18-20 per cent to 24-24.5 mt, driven principally by a recovery in cane availability in Maharashtra and North Karnataka, besides support from monsoons.

When it comes to sugar, the government does not want to take any chances. The food minister tweeted that the government decide on sugar imports soon. That’s a signal for more supply and could be a negative sign for prices.