Sugar

The dual pricing model comprising sale of sugar at 50-60 rupees per kg to industrial consumers and at 30 rupees per kg to household buyers would be a win-win formula for all major stake holders. The mechanism would help cane-growing farmers get remunerative prices for their cane and also lead to a robust balance sheet for sugar millers. Major beverage manufacturers have reduced purchases and replaced sugar with organic sweeteners like stevia. The consumption of sugar in India is growing at 4% on year, and annual consumption is seen touching 30 million tonne by 2020. Of the total sugar consumption in the country, only 30% is consumed by household buyers, while 70% is used by industrial buyers. But none of these industrial bulk consumers reduced the prices of their products when sugar was fetching a low realization.

EID Parry India Ltd has contracted imported 64,000 tonne of raw sugar from Brazil. Company crush about 10% less cane in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) as availability in Tamil Nadu is lower this year because of drought. In 2016-17, the company had crushed 4.45 million tonne of cane, down from 5.59 million tonne crushed a year ago because of lesser availability. Shares of EID Parry India closed down 2.5% on the National Stock Exchange.

Uttar Pradesh sugar mills owe farmers more than Rs 3,500 crore in arrears for the current crushing season, which has almost rounded off. About 90 per cent of these arrears, or about Rs 3,200 crore, are owed by the state private sugar mills, which number 91 of the total 116 functional units in the state. Against total sugarcane payables of Rs 25,381 crore for 2016-17 season, the mills have paid farmers nearly Rs 21,670 crore, thus leaving the remaining amount of about Rs 3,500 crore still to be settled. Last year, the total payables to UP cane farmers had stood at about Rs 18,000 crore, which have increased to over Rs 25,000 crore, a jump of nearly 40 percent, although the cane price was also higher this season. The state cane price effective for the current season was earlier hiked by Rs 25 from Rs 280/quintal to Rs 305/quintal for normal variety.

Prices of sugar in global markets are expected to rise in the year ahead due to a likely fall in sugarcane production in Brazil. The company goes with the Brazil sugarcane industry association estimate of cane-crushing at 585 million tonne sugarcane in 2017-18, down 3.7% on year. Strong possibility of El Nino phenomenon in the year and eventual heavy rains would take a hit on cane production. The Centre-South region of Brazil which produces 90% of the country total sugar output produced 35.63 million tonne sugar during 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), up 14.1% on year.

Prices of sugar fell in the key wholesale markets of the country due to sluggish demand from bulk buyers. Medium-grade sugar was in Delhi in Muzaffarnagar, both down 10 rupees. In Mumbai and Kolhapur, prices fell by 10 rupees per 100kg. On NCDEX too, sugar futures were in the red. The benchmark July contract was down 0.2%.

Prices of sugar fell in the key wholesale markets of Delhi and Muzaffarnagar, because of poor demand in the market. In Delhi and Muzaffarnagar, the sweetener was sold down by nearly 20 rupees. In Mumbai, the key wholesale market of Maharashtra, prices of sugar were unchanged due to thin trade. Prices in Mumbai, however, are likely to fall in the near term due to lack of demand. On the NCDEX, the most-active June contract of sugar traded down 0.3% from the previous close.

In Delhi, sugar was traded down 20 rupees per 100 kg, as demand waned at higher prices. Prices also fell in the wholesale markets of Kolhapur, as mills scaled down prices to trigger demand. In Muzaffarnagar, another important wholesale market, prices were largely unchanged because trade was subdued. Prices were also unchanged in Mumbai because of subdued demand. Also, as price cuts by mills had failed to trigger demand, these entities weren’t lowering prices further. Demand for the commodity in Mumbai has declined as states that usually buy sugar from Maharashtra have shifted to Uttar Pradesh because of higher production in the northern state. NCDEX May contract was down 0.4%.

Prices of sugar were unchanged in the key wholesale markets of Mumbai and Muzaffarnagar in thin trade. In Muzaffarnagar and Mumbai, sugar was unchanged from previous close. There was no bulk demand for sugar in the market, only day-to-day demand is keeping prices steady. On the NCDEX, the most active July contract of sugar traded up 0.5% from the previous close.

Sugar output in Tamil Nadu is seen falling more than 45% to 600,000 tonne in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) from an estimated 1.1 million tonne this year. Last year, mills in the state had produced 1.37 million tonne of sugar. Sugar output next season is seen declining because of successive years of meagre rainfall in the state and a drop-in cane acreage. Tamil Nadu received 62% below-normal rainfall during the key northeast monsoon season in Oct-Dec. Back-to-back years of deficit rainfall and a severe drought this year have also dragged groundwater to abysmally low levels in the state. The state has a capacity to produce around 3 million tonne sugar annually.

Prices of sugar were unchanged in key wholesale markets of Mumbai and Delhi today in thin trade. Sugar prices had risen last week in spot markets of north India due to increase in retail demand because the wedding season. Prices are seen falling in north India due to higher-than-expected sugar output in Uttar Pradesh. Mills in Uttar Pradesh produced 8.74 mln tn sugar during Oct 1-May 15, up 28.4% on year the most-active May contract was up 0.5%. Prices of sugar are seen up in the near term as demand for the commodity is likely to rise ahead of Ramzan. On NCDEX, the most active July contract of sugar was down 0.2% from previous close.

Mills across Uttar Pradesh produced 8.74 million tonne sugar during Oct 1-May 15, up 28.4% on year. Total sugar production by mills in Uttar Pradesh in the year-ago period was 6.81 million tonne. Mills in the state have crushed 82.36 million tonne cane so far, compared with 64.18 million tonne in the year-ago period. Average sugar recovery in Uttar Pradesh was at 10.6%, unchanged on year. With five mills in Uttar Pradesh still operating, market participants expect sugar output in the state this season to touch an all-time high of 8.75 million tonne, surpassing the previous high of 8.47 million tonne in 2006-07. Mills, which are still running, are likely to wind up crushing operations by next week.

The Directorate General of Foreign Trade has reallocated quota for the import of 23,798 tonne raw sugar for mills in the south and west zones. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade had earlier allotted a quota of 9,858 tonne raw sugar to NCS Sugar.

Prices of sugar fell in Mumbai and Kolhapur, in Maharashtra, due to weak buying even as mills lowered their prices to trigger demand. Demand has been subdued for almost two weeks in the state. In the key wholesale markets of Kolhapur and Mumbai, sugar was sold down 5 rupees from Thursday. In the other key wholesale markets of Muzaffarnagar and Delhi, prices were unchanged as trade remained thin. Demand for sugar is also subdued in the country as forecast of normal monsoon in 2017 has dampened the sentiment. Adequate rainfall may help in reviving the sugarcane crop across the southern part of India, which is facing acute shortage of water. Sugar prices in the near term may further fall as supplies are expected to increase once the imported sugar arrives in the market. On the NCDEX, the most-active July contract of sugar traded up 0.2% from the previous close.

Mills in Brazil Centre-South region produced 1.12 million tonne of sugar during the second fortnight of April, down 38.1% from 1.81 million tonne produced a year ago. The fall in sugar output can be attributed to delay in milling and low sugar recovery from cane. Mills in the region, which accounts for more than 90% of Brazil total sugar output, crushed 24.09 million tonne of sugarcane during Apr 2017-18 down 33.5% on year. Mills in the region crushed 41.71 million tonne of cane during April, down 39.7% on year. They produced 1.83 million tonne of sugar, down 43.8% on year. Of the total cane crushed, around 41.5% was used for sugar production, while 58.5% was used to make ethanol. Mills in Brazil Centre-South region are likely to produce 35.2 million tonne of sugar this season compared with 35.6 million tonne produced in the 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) season.