Wheat

Wheat prices in the key wholesale markets of Delhi and Indore were unchanged amid thin trade. Demand from millers is low, which has kept trade subdued. Arrivals in Delhi were around 15,000 bags (1bag=100kg), in Indore, farmers brought around 3,000 bags to the market. Supplies were also unchanged from previous close. Wheat futures contracts, however, ended down as traders booked profits after prices rose over the last six trading days. June wheat contract on the NCDEX settled down 0.3% from previous close.

Foodgrain such as wheat, rice and pulses become cheaper after the goods and services tax (GST) system kicks in later this year. As the GST Council has decided to keep them zero-rated under the new tax regime.

The government had 27.7 million tonne wheat in its stocks at the beginning of this month, down 11.8% from 31.4 million tonne a year ago. The stocks are down despite a bumper crop this year as lower output in last two years had taken the government stocks to a multi-year low of 9.4 million tonne in March. The procurement target is higher as India’s wheat production in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) is seen at 97.4 million tonne, up from 92.3 million tonne a year ago. So far, 28 million tonne wheat has been procured across the country, up nearly 24% on year.

Wheat futures on NCDEX traded higher for the sixth consecutive session due to declining arrivals in spot markets. June contract on the NCDEX ended up 0.8% from previous close. wheat prices were down in major wholesale markets due to subdued buying by bulk buyers and stockists. Mill quality wheat sold in Delhi, down 10 rupees and in Indore, down 20-30 rupees from previous clsoe. In Kota market prices remained unchanged.

The government has procured 28.0 million tonne of wheat so far in the 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) marketing year, up nearly 24% on year. In Madhya Pradesh, where 6.2 million tonne wheat has been purchased so far, the total procurement is likely at 7.0 million tonne against the target of 8.5 million tonne. In Uttar Pradesh, where the state government had set an ambitious target of 8.0 million tonne against the centre estimate of 3.0 million tonne, only 1.8 million tonne has been purchased so far. The government crossed its procurement target in Punjab where 11.6 million tonne has been bought so far, up 9.8% from a year ago. In Haryana, another major wheat producing state, 7.4 million tonne has been bought so far, up 10.1% on year and close to the target of 7.5 million tonne.

Prices of wheat in the key wholesale markets were largely unchanged amid thin trade. Arrivals in Indore were pegged at 15,000 tonne (1bag=100kg), up from 14,000 bags. Arrivals are increasing as procurement by the government is nearing an end. The most-active June wheat contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange ended up 0.1% from the previous close.

The Centre is likely to allocate 4 million tonne of wheat for the open market sales scheme during the 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) marketing year. During 2016-17, the government sold 4.6 million tonne wheat across the country at a base price of 1,640 rupees per 100 kg compared to the initial plan of selling 6.5-7.5 million tonne. The quantum of wheat offered under the open market sale scheme is lower this year because of tight government stocks. Carryover stocks at the beginning of the season were at 7.4 million tonne, which when added to the expected procurement of 30 million tonne wheat this year will take total stocks in government reserves to 37.4 million tonne.

Wheat prices in Delhi were at 1,760 rupees per 100 kg, up 10 rupees per 100 kg from previous close, as arrivals of the grain fell. Arrivals of wheat from Uttar Pradesh fell as the state government is procuring wheat at better prices and farmers are not bringing the produce to Delhi. Arrivals in the state fell to 4,000 bags, each carrying 100 kg of the grain, from 5,000 bags on previous close.

Futures contracts of wheat traded higher on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange for the fourth consecutive session taking cues from gains in spot markets. The June contract of wheat on the NCDEX ended up 0.6% from the previous close. In the key wholesale market of Delhi, prices of wheat rose because of a fall in arrivals. The prices of wheat, however, were unchanged in Indore. Arrivals in Indore were also unchanged at 7,000-8,000 bags.

The government wheat procurement in the current marketing year that started April is likely to fall 3 million tonne short of its initial target of 33 million tonne. So far, govt. has procured 28.4 million tonne wheat and expect to buy 30 million tonne. Government had bought 5.9 million tonne wheat from farmers in Madhya Pradesh compared to a target of 8.5 million tonne. In Uttar Pradesh too, though the state government is eyeing procurement of 8.0 million tonne of wheat. actual procurement may even fall short of the central government initial estimate of 3.0 million tonne. Though procurement is seen lower than initial estimates, it has already topped last year total procurement of 23.0 million tonne, and would be enough to meet requirements under state-run welfare schemes this year.

Madhya Pradesh is likely to miss the 8.5-million-tonne wheat procurement target for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) by 1.5 million tonne, due to lower turnout of farmers at procurement centres following delay in payments. Target of 8.5 million tonne now seems difficult. Madhya Pradesh is the second-largest wheat growing state in the country with output this year seen at a record 23 million tonne. since the procurement began in the state late March, around 6 million tonne of wheat has been procured, while another 1 million tonne is expected to flow into government reserves till early June. Delay in payment from cooperative banks due to cash crunch has irked farmers, pushing them to sell the grain in spot markets for instant payments.

Ukraine exported 37.2 MMT of grains in 2016/17 by May 3, or 9% more than shipped abroad at the same time a year ago (34.2 MMT). This volume included 15.8 MMT of wheat (+11% year-on-year), 16.1 MMT of corn (+4%) and 5.1 MMT of barley (+22%). In the same period, exporters also shipped abroad 303 KMT of flour, including 301.7 KMT of wheat flour and 1.2 KMT of flour from other cereals.

Wheat futures on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange ended higher for the third consecutive session due to the disparity between prices in spot and futures markets. The June wheat contract on the NCDEX ended up 0.6% from the previous close. In Delhi, mill-quality wheat was unchanged from previous close.

The US Department of Agriculture has pegged India wheat production in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) at 97.0 million tonne, up 11.5% from 87.0 million tonne estimated for 2016-17. The increase is due to favourable weather, boosting yields in the main wheat producing areas. Imports were likely to remain high in 2017-18 because of cheaper availability of the grain in global markets. In 2017-18, global wheat production is likely to fall by 2% to 737.83 million tonne due to lower output in the US, Argentina, Australia, and Canada. In the US, the decline is likely seen resulting from a sharp reduction in acreage and lower yields. Global wheat consumption is projected down slightly from last year record with reduced feed and residual usage partially offset by increased food use.

Prices of wheat rose in the markets of Delhi for the second day after it fell on previous close. Following the government forecast of a high production this year. Wheat prices in Delhi were up 5 rupees per 100 kg from previous close. In the markets of Indore, wheat prices were unchanged in thin trade. On NCDEX, the most active June wheat contract ended up 0.06% from the previous close.

The government has procured 27.1 million tonne wheat so far in the 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) marketing year, up 21.5% on year. (still short of its target of 33 million tonne for the current fiscal). Purchases are highest in Punjab where the government has bought 11.49 million tonne, slightly lower than its target of 11.50 million tonne. At 7.33 million tonne, wheat procurement in Haryana is also close to the target of 7.50 million tonne. In Uttar Pradesh, the largest wheat-producing state, 1.51 million tonne has been purchased so far, sharply higher than a year ago but way behind the target of 3 million tonne for this year. Procurement in Madhya Pradesh is also unlikely to reach the target of 8.50 million tonne for the year as arrivals are declining in the state and the government has been so far able to procure to 5.85 million tonne of the grain.

Wheat futures on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange ended largely unchanged as higher supplies in physical markets were offset by demand from flour millers ahead of Ramzan. The most-active June contract on the NCDEX ended up 0.06% from the previous close. The overall sentiment was bearish as the government raised this year wheat production estimate to a record prominent level. In benchmark Indore market, mill quality wheat traded steady. In the Delhi market wheat prices were a tad up 5 rupees from previous close.

New Delhi Barring rise in wheat prices, other commodities moved in a tight range in the absence of worthwhile activities, settling at their previous levels. Arrivals and offtake too remained at a low ebb and volume of business restricted. Wheat dara also showed some strength on increased offtake by flour mills. Rise in wheat dara prices was mostly supported by increased offtake by rolling flour mills to meet increased demand. In the national capital, wheat dara (for mills) on the back of increased offtake by flour mills wheat dara prices rose by another Rs 20 per quintal.

Last week, the Ukrainian grain market was sluggish. Domestic prices for all major cereals kept falling. CPT market was also quiet amid the decreased demand from importers for old-crop grain. A significant reduction of wheat exports from Ukraine is expected in May-June. Domestic grain CPT-port prices dropped on average by UAH 50-100/MT. New crop as well as strengthening of the national currency still pressured the domestic prices.

U.S. wheat supplies for 2017/18 are projected down 9 percent from 2016/17 on lower production, which is partially offset by higher beginning stocks. All wheat production for 2017/18 is projected at 1,820 million bushels, down nearly 500 million bushels from the prior year. The year-to-year decline is due to a sharp reduction in planted area and projected lower yields. The all wheat yield is projected at 47.2 bushels per acre, down 10 percent from last year’s record. The first survey-based forecast for 2017/18 winter wheat production is down sharply with the lowest harvested area in more than a century and lower yields. Winter wheat benefited from diminishing drought conditions in the Plains and Midwest. However, a late April snow storm affected large portions of the Hard-Red Winter wheat belt, especially western Kansas. Combined spring wheat and Durum production for 2017/18 is projected to decline 10 percent on lower area and a return to trend yields. Total use for 2017/18 is projected down 2 percent on lower exports and feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 1.0 billion bushels, down 35 million from the previous year’s revised level but above the five-year average. The EU is expected to regain export market share following last year’s small crop and quality problems. U.S. feed and residual use is projected down 20 million bushels on lower supplies. U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline 245 million bushels to 914 million, the lowest in three years. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.65 per bushel. The mid-point of this range is up $0.35 from the previous year’s low level. Global wheat supplies are projected to decline fractionally as higher beginning stocks are more than offset by a production decline following last year’s record. Total wheat production is projected at 737.8 million tons, the second highest total on record. Global wheat consumption is projected down slightly from last year’s record with reduced feed and residual usage partially offset by increased food use. Global imports are expected to be a record for the fifth consecutive year. Global ending stocks are projected at a record 258.3 million tons, up 2.9 million from 2016/17.