Russian growers held 1629.1 KMT of oilseeds as of April 1, 2018 that is 64 KMT (3.8%) less than at the same time last year (1693.1 KMT). Oilseed inventories reduced by 491.3 KMT in March. Farmer sunseed stocks totaled 871 KMT – down 186.7 KMT (17.6%) from the same time last year (1057.7 KMT). Sunseed inventories reduced by 344 KMT in March.
Domestic prices for oilseeds (except for rapeseed) moved up last week. The situation did not change significantly. Agricultural producers restrained sales, provoking buyers to raise prices, which was quite effective amid the growing demand from buyers. Sunseed prices grew on average UAH 100-200/MT.Export prices for sunflower seed and soybeans (FOB with delivery in May) remained unchanged. Sunflower seed prices equaled USD 395/MT (seller), USD 384/MT (buyer). World markets of competing vegetable oils showed price reduction during the second week in a row (palm oil – by 1.2%, soybean oil – by 0.8%), while the prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil (FOB with delivery in May) strengthened by USD 2/MT. Currently, oil stocks in ports are lower than last year, which creates some tension in the market. But these volumes are still enough to provide export shipments, which are almost 14% ahead of last year.In the domestic market of sunflower oil, the prices strengthened on average by UAH 200/MT under the influence of stronger demand and limited supply.
Sunoil production by Ukraine’s large and medium-sized crushers amounted to 428 KMT in January 2017/18 that is down 10.3% from the previous month (477.2 KMT) and down 10% from January 2017 (475.7 KMT). Sunseed processing stays at a high, nearly record level this season. However, sunoil production lowered to 2241.2 KMT, i.e. by 9.5% from last season’s record of 2477.2 KMT.
In 2018, January’s exports of Ukrainian sunmeal totaled 478 KMT, i.e. they hit a new high. The export trade gained 16% against the previous month (412 KMT). Its increase against January 2017 was more than 10%. 1976 KMT of sunmeal was supplied to foreign markets in September-January 2017/18 that is up 3.8% from a year ago (1904 KMT).
Sunseed stocks in Ukraine totaled 6737.2 KMT as of December 1, 2017, or 11.5% less than at the same time last year (7608.5 KMT). This included 3604.4 KMT held directly on the farms (-571.3 KMT, or down 13.7% from the same date in 2016) and 3132.8 KMT held at storage and processing companies (-300 KMT, or down 8.7% year-on-year).
Sunoil production by large and medium-sized crushers totaled 508.7 KMT in October 2017/18, or 47% more than in September (345.8 KMT), but 1.3% below October’s record of 515.6 KMT registered in MY 2016/17. Sunseed crushing volumes hold at a high level early in the current 2017/18 season, but sunoil output is down 6.6% from last year’s record, at 854.5 KMT against 915.4 KMT a year ago.
The market was surprised by such a significant increase, which affected all vegoils. So, November’s decision of the Indian government brought duty rates up to a decade high. Predicting further developments is important for Ukraine, as India is its key importer absorbing up to one-third of total sunoil exports.
Argentinian Sunflower new-crop planting pace was 95% of 1.75 Million Ha vs 1.7 of 16/17 season. Under normal weather conditons,tentatively forecast a new-crop size of 3.65 Million T vs 3.45 of 16/17.
Romanian farmers are getting more and more interested in oilseed crops, devoting less acreage to grain crops. Thus, in 2017/18 MY grain crop area (wheat, corn, barley) was 6% lower than 5-year average. In contrast, sowing area of oilseeds (rapeseed, sunseed, soybeans) is estimated at a new record, which is 31% higher than 5-year average. In 2017/18 major part in oilseed sowing area structure was traditionally given to sunseed. Still, 2017/18 season was marked with essential growth in area of other oilseed crops, soybeans area increased by 40% and rapeseed by 25%. In terms of exports, Romania is responsible for 42% in the total sunseed supplies to EU market (in 2016/17), which makes the country quite important market player in the bloc.
Production is estimated to be relatively unchanged at 52 kt as lower harvested area is offset by higher yields. However, compared to 2016-17, supply is expected to increase by 11% to 117 kt due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar the previous year and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to be higher than 2016-17 due to lower North American supplies. US sunflower seed production for 2017-18 is forecast by the USDA at just over 0.8 Mt, down sharply from 2016-17, and largely due to lower roduction in North Dakota. Production of oil type varieties is estimated to have fallen to 0.7 Mt and the production of confectionery type varieties is estimated to have decreased to 0.1 Mt. Total supply in the US supply is expected to decrease by nearly 20% to 1.2 Mt. Domestic use is estimated to decrease and exports are expected to fall marginally. As a result, US sunflower seed carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply and be supportive for North American prices. The world supply of sunflower seed for 2017-18 is estimated by the USDA at 50.8 Mt. This is marginally lower than last year, due to lower production in Ukraine. World domestic use is expected to decrease and world exports are forecast to fall sharply. World carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to 2.2 Mt, well below the five-year average.
Sunoil exports hit an all-time high of 537 KMT in October 2017/18 that is 73% more than in the previous month (310 KMT) and up almost 24% from October 2016 (434 KMT). In addition, sunoil export shipments also set a new record in the first two months of MY 2017/18 (September-October): 847 KMT against 706 KMT a year ago (+20%).
The USDA’s November report presented a raised forecast for Black Sea rapeseed production in the 2017/18 season. In November, the sunseed crop estimate for Ukraine was slashed to 13000 KMT (down 500 KMT). The USDA predicts the Black Sea countries to harvest a total 26900 KMT of this oilseed. The region’s rapeseed production expand due to a larger harvest in Russia, which is to reach 1500 KMT (up 100 KMT). The total rapeseed crop in the Black Sea region is estimated at 4225 KMT. The forecast for Black Sea soybean production was left unchanged at 7785 KMT.
India govt may up import duty on crude sunflower oil, canola oil to 17.5%.
Sunseed was harvested from 5773 Th ha (97% of the projected 5942 Th ha) with a crop of 11409 KMT and a yield of 1.98 MT/ha. At the same time, farmers harvested soybeans from 1808 Th ha out of the projected 1990.2 Th ha. The crop was 3442 KMT with a yield of 1.90 MT/ha (down 14.7% year-on-year).
357.2 KMT of vegoils were made in Russia in September, or 13.8% more than in August, but 1.8% less than in September 2016. Overall vegoil production in Russia gained 11.2% in 2017. The country produced 3975.4 KMT of vegoils for the first nine months of the current year. This gain was accounted for primarily by expanding sunoil production in Russia. It totaled 3190.5 KMT in the period under review that is up 17.6% year-on-year (2713 KMT was produced in January-September 2016).
The start of a new season features growth of sunseed processing. So, sunoil production by large and medium-sized crushers totaled 345.7 KMT in September 2017, or twice as much as in the previous month (171.6 KMT). However, a sunseed crop decline in the current 2017/18 season prevented sunoil producers from surpassing the September 2016 record (399.8 KMT): the product’s output fell by 13.5% against MY 2016/17.
Sunflower stocks at enterprises that process and store oilseeds as of October 1, 2017, amounted to 5.83 million tons, which is 24.7 thousand tons less than the same indicator in 2016 (5.85 million tons).
The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has procured 177 tonne of sunflower seed under the price support scheme in Odisha. The procurement drive, which started late July, was underway in Eram and Bilana procurement centres, and 235 farmers had sold their crop to the agency. NAFED started procuring the crop from growers as market prices fell below the minimum support price of 3,950 rupees per 100 kg, inclusive of a bonus of 100 rupees. The agency has wound up procurement of the oilseed in Haryana and Telangana.
Sunmeal exports from Kazakhstan totaled 1.1 KMT in July 2017 against 1.7 KMT in the previous month and 0.5 KMT in July 2016. In general, 2016/17 exportable stocks remained at last season’s level. The difference is that the shipments are more evenly distributed over the year. So, 23.6 KMT was exported for the eleven months of the current season against 23.4 KMT a year ago. The end market for Kazakh sunmeal is very narrow. Traditionally, its key importers include Uzbekistan (72% of total exports) and Tajikistan (26%). Iran accounts for 2% of exports, and it makes purchases irregularly.
The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India procured 124 tonne of sunflower seed under the price support scheme in Odisha. The procurement drive, which started in late July, was underway in Eram and Bilana procurement centres and 180 farmers had sold their crop to the agency. NAFED started procuring the crop from growers as market prices fell below the minimum support price of 3,950 rupees per 100 kg, inclusive of a bonus of 100 rupees. The agency had wound up procurement of the oilseed in Haryana and Telangana.