Month: April 2018

Argentina’s soybean harvest accelerated over the past week with harvested areas reaching 54% of the planted acreage, an increase of 14.4 percentage points on the week and up 21.7 percentage points on last year: BAGE. The accumulated harvested volume crossed the 22 million mt mark, with the total expected at 38 million mt, unchanged on the week. Average yields slipped back from 2.56 mt per hectare last week to 2.38 mt per hectare, as the majority of lots in good condition are already harvested and action now moves towards areas that have suffered more severely from the drought.

Soybean contracts on NCDEX hit the 3% lower circuit, tailing losses on CBOT and due to weak demand from crushers. The most-active May futures were down 3% at 3,611 rupees per 100 kg. Arrivals were steady in Madhya Pradesh and also unchanged in Maharashtra.

Global soybean output in 2017/18 is trimmed by a further 2m t, to 339m t, a 2% y/y decline, as a cut for Argentina is only partly offset by an upgrade for Brazil. While several producers will cut big crops, the y/y decline is linked to an anticipated plunge in output in Argentina, where adverse weather has limited area and yield potential. The 2018/19 global outturn is placed fractionally higher than before, at 355m t, up by 16m y/y. And with total use cut slightly, inventories are lifted to 40m t, marginally lower y/y. With global uptake set to advance to a new peak on gains in Asia, carryovers are seen contracting by 14% y/y, to 41m t. Much of the decline will likely be due to the major exporters, seen down by more than one-fifth, to 18.0m t, as accumulation in the USA contrasts with a heavy contraction in Argentina. Trade could rise by 3% y/y, to a high of 152m t. Due to tentative expectations for area gains in leading producers, world production may recover in 2018/19. The prediction for trade is reduced from before but, at 157m t, is still up by 5m y/y and a new peak.