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Sugar mills in Maharashtra have decided to start cane crushing operations for the 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season from Nov 1, putting to rest speculation about an early start to crushing operations. Among other decisions, the state pursue restructuring of 61 billion rupees worth of outstanding loans of 90 cooperative sugar mills with the Centre. The ban on export of sugarcane may have been taken in the wake of sharp fall in output in the neighboring north Karnataka. Also, Maharashtra wants to raise the longevity of crushing season with an intention to raise the output. The state government expects to crush over 65 million tonne of sugarcane to produce 7.3 million tonne sugar in the year starting Oct 1. This year, sugar output was at 4.2 million tonne.

The prices of sugar fell in the key wholesale markets of the country amid increased selling pressure on mills. Millers are quoting lower prices as there is no demand at current price levels despite it being the festival season. Mills also have to adhere to stock limits. Demand for the sweetener has been low since the beginning of the month. There is only hand-to-mouth demand as crushing season is nearing and there is fear of government action in case prices rise.

India top sugar producing state Maharashtra begin this year sugarcane crushing season from 1 November. This season Maharashtra estimates a sugarcane yield of 72.2 million tonnes and sugar production of 7.34 million tonnes. The state expects around 170 sugar factories, both in the co-operative and private sectors, to operate in this crushing season.

Sugar millers are now seeking restructuring of loans for a period of 10 years. Heavy rains in the last few days have made it difficult for them to advance the crushing operations. The millers have also sought government guarantee to enable some of the mills to procure loans from banks since several mills are in a bad shape. Several mills in the state owe dues to the tune of Rs 2,600 crore. Nearly 50% of the mills in Maharashtra has the capacity to crush 2,000-2,500 tonne per day. These are making losses to the tune of Rs 10-20 crore. Those with a higher capacity are incurring losses of about Rs 30-40 crore for the season.

Global prices of raw sugar are estimated to fall 24% on year to 13 cents a pound (1 pound = 0.45 kg) in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) due to higher supplies. Global sugar production is expected to increase 7% on year to a record 190 million tonne, slightly higher than the forecast in June. The output in Brazil, the world’s largest producer, is seen increasing 1% to 40 million tonne in 2017-18, and 47% of the cane crushed is expected to be allocated for sugar production, up from 46% in 2016-17. Sugar production in India is expected to be around 27 million tonne in 2017-18, up 11% on year. Global sugar stocks are seen up 7% at 76 million tonne in 2017-18, as production is seen increasing faster than consumption.

Sugar production in Brazil key Centre South region drop to a three-year low next season as a dearth of replanting takes its toll on cane yields, and with ethanol raising its take of the harvest. Kingsman pegged sugar output in the Centre South, which is responsible for more than 90% of output in the top producing country, at 33.99m tonnes for 2018-19, on an April-to-March basis. Sugar output at that level would represent a fall of 2.1m tonnes year on year, and would be the lowest since the 31.22m tonnes produced in 2015-16. The decline would represent a double whammy of a lower cane crush, seen dropping to a four-year low of 575.0m tonnes, and a lower proportion of cane being processed into sugar rather than ethanol.