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The US Department of Agriculture has pegged India wheat production in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) at 97.0 million tonne, up 11.5% from 87.0 million tonne estimated for 2016-17. The increase is due to favourable weather, boosting yields in the main wheat producing areas. Imports were likely to remain high in 2017-18 because of cheaper availability of the grain in global markets. In 2017-18, global wheat production is likely to fall by 2% to 737.83 million tonne due to lower output in the US, Argentina, Australia, and Canada. In the US, the decline is likely seen resulting from a sharp reduction in acreage and lower yields. Global wheat consumption is projected down slightly from last year record with reduced feed and residual usage partially offset by increased food use.

Prices of wheat rose in the markets of Delhi for the second day after it fell on previous close. Following the government forecast of a high production this year. Wheat prices in Delhi were up 5 rupees per 100 kg from previous close. In the markets of Indore, wheat prices were unchanged in thin trade. On NCDEX, the most active June wheat contract ended up 0.06% from the previous close.

The government has procured 27.1 million tonne wheat so far in the 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) marketing year, up 21.5% on year. (still short of its target of 33 million tonne for the current fiscal). Purchases are highest in Punjab where the government has bought 11.49 million tonne, slightly lower than its target of 11.50 million tonne. At 7.33 million tonne, wheat procurement in Haryana is also close to the target of 7.50 million tonne. In Uttar Pradesh, the largest wheat-producing state, 1.51 million tonne has been purchased so far, sharply higher than a year ago but way behind the target of 3 million tonne for this year. Procurement in Madhya Pradesh is also unlikely to reach the target of 8.50 million tonne for the year as arrivals are declining in the state and the government has been so far able to procure to 5.85 million tonne of the grain.

Wheat futures on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange ended largely unchanged as higher supplies in physical markets were offset by demand from flour millers ahead of Ramzan. The most-active June contract on the NCDEX ended up 0.06% from the previous close. The overall sentiment was bearish as the government raised this year wheat production estimate to a record prominent level. In benchmark Indore market, mill quality wheat traded steady. In the Delhi market wheat prices were a tad up 5 rupees from previous close.

New Delhi Barring rise in wheat prices, other commodities moved in a tight range in the absence of worthwhile activities, settling at their previous levels. Arrivals and offtake too remained at a low ebb and volume of business restricted. Wheat dara also showed some strength on increased offtake by flour mills. Rise in wheat dara prices was mostly supported by increased offtake by rolling flour mills to meet increased demand. In the national capital, wheat dara (for mills) on the back of increased offtake by flour mills wheat dara prices rose by another Rs 20 per quintal.

Last week, the Ukrainian grain market was sluggish. Domestic prices for all major cereals kept falling. CPT market was also quiet amid the decreased demand from importers for old-crop grain. A significant reduction of wheat exports from Ukraine is expected in May-June. Domestic grain CPT-port prices dropped on average by UAH 50-100/MT. New crop as well as strengthening of the national currency still pressured the domestic prices.