The US Department of Agriculture has pegged India 2017-18 (Aug-Jul) cotton output at 28.0 million bales (1USbale=480pound), up 6% on year. Following projections of higher output, the department cut its estimate for India cotton imports by 30% to 1.75 million bales for 2017-18. India cotton exports for the next season are seen rising to 4.5 million bales, from an estimated 4.2 million bales this year. Global cotton production in 2017-18 is seen at 113.22 million bales, up from 105.88 million bales estimated for this year. Global production is expected to rise nearly 7%, despite marginally lower average yields, as area rebounds to its highest level in three years Global ending stocks of cotton in 2017-18 are estimated at 87.14 million bales, lower from 89.52 million bales in 2016-17.
Soybean prices tad up in Indore as arrivals fall.
Soybean prices tad up in Indore as arrivals fall.
NCDEX cotton oilcake ends down on early monsoon view.
Futures contracts of cottonseed oilcake on NCDEX hit a 17-month-low because of expectations of early onset of the southwest monsoon this year. Most-active June contract was down 1.2% from previous close. The southwest monsoon is likely to hit Andaman sea and the Nicobar Islands by Monday, five days ahead of the normal date of May 20. Lower demand from stockists and reports of higher inventories are seen weighing on prices of the commodity, In Akola, a key delivery centre in Maharashtra, cottonseed oilcake was sold down 20-30 rupees from the previous day.
NCDEX mustard seed up on demand from oil millers.
NCDEX mustard seed up on demand from oil millers.
All-India cotton arrivals down at 52,000 bales Wed.
Arrivals of cotton at major spot markets across the country were at 52,000 bales (1bale=170kg) on Wednesday, down from 52,500 bales on previous close.
Traders see mustard meal exports doubling on year to 7,000 tonne in May.
Traders see mustard meal exports doubling on year to 7,000 tonne in May.
Sugar up in Delhi on good demand; steady in Mumbai.
Prices of sugar in the key wholesale markets of Delhi were up due to improved demand as consumption has increased amid wedding season. In Delhi, the sweetener was sold up 5 rupees per 100 kg from previous close. In Mumbai, prices of sugar were unchanged amid thin trade. On the NCDEX, the most-active May contract was up 1.8%.
Groundnut oils slide on low demand.
Groundnut oils slide on low demand.
India no plans to allow extra sugar imports.
India, the world biggest sugar consumer, has no plans to allow extra imports of the sweetener as stocks held in mills will suffice, Food Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said on Thursday. Last month, the government allowed imports of half a million tonnes of duty-free raw sugar, as a drought cut output below consumption for the first time in seven years. Traders were speculating that the government could soon be forced to allow imports of an extra 500,000 to 1 million tonnes to meet local demand, estimated at 24-25 million tonnes a year. Local sugar prices are steady around 38,000 rupees ($590.38) a tonne despite an uptick in demand during the summer months when sales of ice cream and cold drinks soar, potentially boosting demand for sugar.
USDA predicts Ukraine sunflower harvest for 2017/18 agri-year could be 13.5 million tonnes.
USDA predicts Ukraine sunflower harvest for 2017/18 agri-year could be 13.5 million tonnes.
India Sugar Up in Muzaffarnagar, Delhi on Stuckists demand.
Demand from Stuckists pushed sugar prices up in the wholesale market of Muzaffarnagar and Delhi. Medium-grade sugar was sold up 10-20 rupees in Muzaffarnagar and in Mumbai. Demand of the sugar from other states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat was offset by forecast of normal monsoon in 2017. On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, the May sugar futures were down as investors liquidated their positions ahead of staggered delivery from previous close. May sugar contract was down 0.4% and the July futures were up 0.1%.
Weekly Edible Oil Outlook. Mixed; soybean, mustard seen down, crude palm oil up.
Weekly Edible Oil Outlook. Mixed; soybean, mustard seen down, crude palm oil up.
WASDE SUGAR MAY OUTLOOK
U.S. fiscal year 2016/17 beet sugar production is decreased 64,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on lower expected sucrose recovery. Cane sugar production in Texas is reduced by 2,795 STRV based on final processor reporting. TRQ imports entering under Free Trade Agreements are increased by 2,555 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 100,000 STRV based on pace to date. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are estimated at 1.477 million STRV. Sugar production for 2017/18 is projected at 8.700 million STRV, the sum of beet sugar production of 4.950 million and cane sugar production of 3.750 million. Imports for 2017/18 are projected at 3.858 million STRV and are comprised of TRQ imports of 1.373 million; re-export imports of 175,000; imports from Mexico of 2.301 million; and high-tier tariff imports of 10,000. Projected 2017/18 TRQ imports of specialty sugar include only the WTO minimum quantity because any additional quantities have not been announced by the Secretary of Agriculture. Exports for 2017/18 are projected at 25,000 STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are expected to increase 1.0 percent year-over-year to 12.322 million STRV. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected residually at 1.534 million, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.3 percent. For 2016/17, Mexico sugar exports to non-U.S. destinations are reduced by 58,919 metric tons (MT) to 110,000 based on pace to date. Product re-export deliveries under the IMMEX program are increased 60,000 MT to 390,000 to match the total now estimated by Mexico authorities for 2015/16. Ending stocks are estimated residually at 1.342 million MT, an increase of 48,919 over last month. For 2017/18, Mexico sugar production is projected at 6.225 million MT based on a sugarcane crop of 55.000 million and a recovery of about 11.3 percent. Combined per capita consumption of sugar and HFCS for 2017/18 is projected the same as for 2016/17. With flat HFCS consumption, sugar deliveries for human consumption for 2017/18 are projected at 4.528 million. Exports to the United States are based on U.S. Needs as defined in the Suspension Agreements but, assuming additionally, that U.S. specialty sugar imports will be set at the same level as initially established for 2016/17.
NCDEX soybean futures tad down on lack of spot cues.
NCDEX soybean futures tad down on lack of spot cues.
WASDE RICE MAY OUTLOOK
U.S. 2017/18 all rice production is forecast at 201.0 million cwt, down 23.1 million from the previous year, all on a substantial reduction in long grain acreage as indicated by the NASS Prospective Plantings survey issued March 31. The forecast 2017/18 yields are based on long-term historical trends and are higher for long grain but slightly lower for combined medium- and short-grain. Total 2017/18 rice supplies are forecast to decrease 7 percent from the previous year to 273.1 million cwt, primarily on the reduction in long grain. U.S. 2017/18 total use is projected at 235.0 million cwt, down 4 percent from last year with both domestic and residual use and exports projected lower. Long-grain exports are projected at 76.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million from 2016/17 on reduced exportable supplies. Combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 34.0 million cwt, down 1 million on increased export competition from Australia and Egypt. All rice 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 38.1 million cwt, down 21 percent from last year. Long-grain stocks are projected at 20.7 million cwt, down 8 million from 2016/17, while combined medium- and short-grain are projected 2 million cwt lower at 14.6 million. The 2017/18 all rice season-average farm price is projected at $10.70 to $11.70/cwt, up $0.80 from the previous year’s revised midpoint. Total 2017/18 global supplies are at 599.9 million tons, up 2.6 million from 2016/17, based on larger carry-in stocks. World 2017/18 rice production is projected at 481.3 million tons, down fractionally from last year’s record output. Total world rice consumption is projected at a record 480.1 million tons, up from the revised 2016/17 level of 478.7 million. Global exports are projected at 42.2 million tons, up 0.8 million from 2016/17. Thailand and India are expected to be the leading rice exporters for 2017/18, both at 10.0 million tons. World 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 119.8 million tons, up marginally from 2016/17. China continues to hold the majority of global rice stocks as its growing production and large imports continue to outpace consumption.
Mustard seed tad up in Jaipur on renewed demand.
Mustard seed tad up in Jaipur on renewed demand.
WASDE WHEAT MAY OUTLOOK
U.S. wheat supplies for 2017/18 are projected down 9 percent from 2016/17 on lower production, which is partially offset by higher beginning stocks. All wheat production for 2017/18 is projected at 1,820 million bushels, down nearly 500 million bushels from the prior year. The year-to-year decline is due to a sharp reduction in planted area and projected lower yields. The all wheat yield is projected at 47.2 bushels per acre, down 10 percent from last year’s record. The first survey-based forecast for 2017/18 winter wheat production is down sharply with the lowest harvested area in more than a century and lower yields. Winter wheat benefited from diminishing drought conditions in the Plains and Midwest. However, a late April snow storm affected large portions of the Hard-Red Winter wheat belt, especially western Kansas. Combined spring wheat and Durum production for 2017/18 is projected to decline 10 percent on lower area and a return to trend yields. Total use for 2017/18 is projected down 2 percent on lower exports and feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 1.0 billion bushels, down 35 million from the previous year’s revised level but above the five-year average. The EU is expected to regain export market share following last year’s small crop and quality problems. U.S. feed and residual use is projected down 20 million bushels on lower supplies. U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline 245 million bushels to 914 million, the lowest in three years. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.65 per bushel. The mid-point of this range is up $0.35 from the previous year’s low level. Global wheat supplies are projected to decline fractionally as higher beginning stocks are more than offset by a production decline following last year’s record. Total wheat production is projected at 737.8 million tons, the second highest total on record. Global wheat consumption is projected down slightly from last year’s record with reduced feed and residual usage partially offset by increased food use. Global imports are expected to be a record for the fifth consecutive year. Global ending stocks are projected at a record 258.3 million tons, up 2.9 million from 2016/17.
WASDE CORN MAY OUTLOOK
The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, down from last year’s record high with a lower forecast area and yield. The yield projection of 170.7 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer weather, estimated using the 1988-2016-time period. The yield model includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation. The smaller corn crop is partly offset by the largest projected beginning stocks since 1988/89, leaving total corn supplies down from a year ago but still the second highest on record. Total U.S. corn use in 2017/18 is forecast to decline 2 percent from a year ago as a slight increase in domestic use is more than offset by lower exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected to rise 80 million bushels to 7.0 billion due to increased use of corn to produce ethanol for fuel and expected growth in non-ethanol FSI. Corn used to produce ethanol is up 50 million bushels, reflecting expectations of gasoline consumption growth, reduced sorghum used to produce ethanol, higher expected blending and continued global ethanol import demand. Projected feed and residual use declines as a smaller crop and increased use of ethanol by-products more than offsets growth in grain consuming animal units. U.S. corn exports are down 350 million bushels, as a 1.0-billion-bushel year-over-year increase in the combined corn exports of Brazil and Argentina during 2016/17 (local marketing years beginning in March 2017 and ending February 2018) is expected to cut into the 2017/18 U.S. shipping season. With total supply falling faster than use, 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks of corn are down 185 million bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.00 to $3.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint from 2016/17. The global coarse grain outlook for 2017/18 is for lower production, increased use and sharply reduced ending stocks. Corn production is forecast down from a year ago, with the largest declines in China and the United States. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for the EU and Canada. Global corn use is up 9 million tons (1 percent), while global corn imports are projected to increase 7 million tons. Notable increases in corn imports include Vietnam, Egypt, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Iran. Global corn ending stocks are down from last year’s record high and if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14. The drop largely reflects forecast declines for China and the United States. For China, total corn supply is down 14 million tons in 2017/18, based on projected declines in beginning stocks and production. Area is reduced based on planting intentions published by the National Bureau of Statistics. On the demand side, feed and residual use is expected to increase based on continued relatively low internal market prices, efforts by the government to promote use of domestic supplies and reduced imports of corn substitutes. Projected FSI use is higher based on expectations of growth in domestic use and exports of corn-based industrial products.
Brazil Jan-Mar container sugar exports up 14% on year.
In terms of containers, sugar export from Brazil rose 14% on year to 591,121 tonne in Jan-Mar. Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of the commodity. The main destination of exports was Myanmar at 125,560 tonne, followed by South Africa at 55,331 tonne. Most exports of sugar in containers is crystal sugar, also known as whites. Brazil exports mainly raw sugar in bulk vessels. The most active July sugar on the ICE was up 1.2% from the previous close.
All-India cotton arrivals down at 52,500 bales Tue.
All-India cotton arrivals down at 52,500 bales Tue. Cotton arrivals at major spot markets across the country were at 52,500 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) on Tuesday, down from 57,900 bales previous close.