Mustard Seed For 2017-18, exports are forecast to be slightly lower at 120 Kt and carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The US and the EU are the main export markets to date for Canadian mustard seed. The average price is forecast to rise sharply from the previous year due to the lower supply and expectations for lower Canadian carry-out stocks. For 2018-19, the area seeded is forecast to be like the previous year due to expectations of similar returns based on new crop contracts. Production is forecast to rise to 145 Kt with marginally lower area but higher yields when compared to the previous year. However, supply is expected to fall by 10% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be higher and, as a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten. The average price is forecast to be slightly higher than 2017-18.
Punjab sets target of 13 MMT of wheat procurement.
Punjab sets target of 13 MMT of wheat procurement.
Mexican wheat imports to rise by nearly 6%.
Mexican wheat imports to rise by nearly 6%.
Egypt purchased almost 5 MMT of wheat in GASC tenders.
Egypt purchased almost 5 MMT of wheat in GASC tenders.
Andhra Pradesh plan to export paddy to Sri Lanka.
Andhra Pradesh plan to export paddy to Sri Lanka.
Prices of rice dip in Asia as demand eases for India variety, Vietnam harvests peak.
Prices of rice dip in Asia as demand eases for India variety, Vietnam harvests peak.
Nigeria Federal Govt targets 17 million rice farmers this year.
Nigeria Federal Govt targets 17 million rice farmers this year.
CANADA CHICKPEAS MOTHLY OUTLOOK:
Chickpeas For 2017-18, Exports are expected to rise sharply from 2016-17, due to increased import demand from Pakistan, Turkey and the US. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to remain tight. The average price is expected to be higher than last year, due to the world shortfall of quality chickpeas. US chickpea production is estimated by USDA at a record 313 Kt, a 27% increase from 2016-17. For 2018-19, the area seeded is expected to rise from 2017-18 because of lower carry-in stocks and the potential for good returns. As a result, production is expected to rise to 145 Kt. Supply is forecast to rise sharply from 2017-18 despite the lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower but carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price is forecast to be lower, due to expectations of larger world supply.
CANADA LENTILS MOTHLY OUTLOOK:
Lentils For 2017-18, Exports are forecast to fall sharply to 1.3 Mt. India, Turkey and United Arab Emirates are currently the top three export markets. Through August to January of this crop year, Canadian lentil exports total over 0.7 Mt, down 56% from this same period in 2016-17. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase to high levels. The overall average price is forecast to fall sharply due to large carry-out stocks. During the month of February, the on-farm price of large green lentils was unchanged and the price of red lentils fell by C$5/t in Saskatchewan. This was largely due to expectations of a large increase in pulse production for the winter crop in India. Large green lentil prices are forecast to maintain a $375/t premium over red lentil prices, below the record premium from 2016-17.For 2017-18, US lentil production, mostly green types, is estimated by the USDA at 0.34 Mt, down 42% from 2016-17. As a result, Canadian lentil exports to the US to-date (August to January) are higher than last year at this time. For 2018-19, area seeded in Canada is expected to fall to 1.3 Mha, due to lower returns relative to other crops. A higher yield is forecast but production is still expected to fall by 22% to 2.0 Mt. However, supply is expected to rise marginally to 3.1 Mt with large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher at 1.8 Mt as markets adjust to the lack of export demand from India. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to decrease from 2017-18 with the assumption of an average grade distribution and discounts for lower grades.
CANADA DRY PEAS MOTHLY OUTLOOK:
DRY PEAS For 2017-18, exports are forecast to fall to 2.5 million tonnes (Mt), with China, India and the US ranking as Canada’s top three markets. Canadian dry pea exports to India are expected to fall sharply to 275 thousand tonnes (kt). Through August to January of this crop year, Canadian dry pea exports total 1.4 Mt, down 35% from this same period in 2016-17. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply due a lack of export demand, despite lower supply. The average price is expected to fall from 2016-17, as lower yellow and green pea prices more than offset higher feed pea prices. During the month of February, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan fell by $5/t, while the price of green peas was unchanged. Monthly dry pea exports have continued at a weak pace. Yellow pea supplies continue to be ample. Indications are that there will be another large winter pulse crop in India. If a higher than average pulse crop in India is realized, Canadian dry pea export demand is expected to remain below normal through the remainder of the crop year. Supporting prices is the continued weakness of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a C$35/t premium over yellow peas, compared to the C$6/t discount green peas had to yellow peas in 2016-17. US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at a record of nearly 0.6 Mt, down nearly 50% from 2016-17. This is largely due to a sharp fall in North Dakota area and below average yields. As a result, Canadian exports to the US are forecast to be higher than the previous year. For 2017-18 to-date (August to January), Canadian dry pea exports to the US totaled 166 Kt. For 2018-19, seeded area is forecast to fall 21% from 2017-18 to 1.3 Mha because of lower returns relative to other crops and below average export demand. Production is forecast to fall by 22% to 3.2 Mt, with trend yields and lower area. However, supply is expected to fall only marginally due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be similar to the current crop year but carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is expected to be lower than in 2017-18.
USDA arm sees ’18-19 Thai rice crop at record high
Thailand’s rice output in 2018-19 (Jan-Dec) is likely to touch a record high of 21.0 mln tn, and up 3% from a year ago. The rise has been attributed to higher acreage following lucrative prices and sufficient reservoir volumes to support irrigation. Rice acreage for the current season is estimated at 11.0 mln ha against 10.7 mln a year ago. Despite a rise in output, exports in 2018-19 are seen unchanged on year at 10 mln tn.
Sugar cos offer 210 mln ltr ethanol to oil cos in second tender
Oil marketing companies have received bids for supply of 210 mln ltr of ethanol, against the 1.17 bln ltr sought in the second tender for 2017-18 (Dec-Nov). Of the 210 mln ltr offered, supply of 170 mln ltr has been allocated so far. Other offers will be scrutinised and total supply will be finalised soon. In the first tender for the season, mills had offered to supply 1.55 bln ltr of ethanol, against the 3.13 bln ltr sought by oil retailers.
Maharashtra govt procures 127,000 tn tur from 105,000 farmers so far
The Maharashtra government has procured 127,000 tn of tur in the season so far from about 105,000 farmers. The state started procuring the commodity after market prices slipped below the minimum support price of 5,450 rupees per 100 kg. Prices fell because of a spike in arrivals of the new crop coupled with subdued demand from millers. The state has also procured 5,434 tn of moong, 58,600 tn urad, 26,200 tn soybean and 400 tn of gram.
India coffee exports during Jan 1 – Mar 21
The Coffee Board of India has finalised its crop estimate for 2016-17 at 312,000 tn, down from 348,000 tn produced a year ago, and also down from the estimate of 316,700 tn. The board has estimated output for 2017-18 at a record high of 350,400 tn, up 12.3% on year.
All-India cotton arrivals up at 133,000 bales
Arrivals of cotton in major spot markets of India are estimated at 133,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) up from 131,000 bales
NFA Council gives 250,000-MT rice importation the green light
The National Food Authority (NFA) Council has approved the procurement process to import 250,000 metric tons of rice. The move by the policy-setting council is envisioned to boost the NFA’s buffer stock.
Thailand looks to intergovernmental deals to boost rice exports
The Thai government plans to boost rice exports by negotiating sales directly with other governments in a move intended to help struggling farmers ahead of a general election to be held by February next year. Indonesia and Malaysia import around 800,000 tons of Thai rice per year, while the Philippines imports 1 million tons. The Philippine government is due to hold a tender in March for the purchase of 250,000 tons of rice from the private sector, for which Thai companies are expected to bid.
The IGC cut the soybean ending stocks
The IGC’s monthly report shows 17/18 world soybean ending stocks at 42 MMT, down 3 MMT from February on a reduction in production.
IGC trimmed their 17/18 world corn ending stocks.
The International Grains Council trimmed their 17/18 world corn ending stocks number 6 MMT to 308 MMT on lower production and increased consumption. Their outlook for 18/19 ending stocks shows 265 MMT expected, down 43 MMT yr/yr.
IGC increased their 17/18 world ending stocks.
The IGC increased their 17/18 world ending stocks number 2 MMT to 256 MMT, as they added to production and trimmed consumption. Ending stocks for 18/19 are seen 3 MMT lower than the current year at 253 MMT.