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The Argentinian soybean crush for January was reported at 2.8 million mt, up 25% from December, but down 8% year-on-year. The figures come at a time when private analysts are estimating a steep fall in Argentina’s crop production, with many now predicting the nation will produce 50 million mt or less, down at least 15% on the previous year. However, the 2018 January crush was up 10% from the five-year average and the third highest recorded for Argentina in 10 years.

The outlook for global soyabean production in 2017/18 is cut by 2m t m/m, to 347m, down by 1% y/y, including a reduced figure for Argentina. However, due to an increased estimate for carry-ins, supplies are forecast higher m/m and, with uptake reduced, carryovers are raised to 44.1m t, slightly lower y/y. Trade is little changed m/m, at a peak of 153m t, up by 4% y/y. The world harvested area is tentatively projected at a new high in 2018/19, including gains in Brazil and the USA. World soyabean output is forecast at 347m t in 2017/18, only 1% lower than the prior year’s peak as record crops in North America mostly compensate for reduced outturns elsewhere. Total use is predicted at a new high, with aggregate end-season stocks likely to fall. However, major exporters’ inventories are seen broadly steady y/y as heavy accumulation in the USA offsets significant falls in Brazil and Argentina. Trade could be a new high on bigger sales to Asia, while a modest recovery in deliveries to the EU is expected. The Council’s outlook for soyameal trade is for a record of 63.8m t, up by 3% y/y on increased demand from buyers in Asia and Africa. Given prospects for a disappointing soyabean crop, availabilities in Argentina, the world’s dominant supplier, are expected to tighten, with exports seen down by 6% y/y. However, this should be outweighed by bigger shipments by the USA and Brazil. Concerning tentative prospects for 2018/19, the world soyabean harvested area is projected to be up 2% y/y, including gains in the USA and Brazil. Trade will again be shaped by China’s appetite for imports

Futures contract of soybean on NCDEX fell as investors booked profits after the government failed to announce the much expected incentives for export of soybean products. The market had widely expected the government to increase the incentive given to soybean cake exporters in the form of export credit to 10% from the current 7.5% to encourage exports and boost domestic prices. Fall in soybean contracts on CBOT also weighed on domestic prices. The most-active March contract of soybean on NCDEX traded down 1% from previous close.