Wheat

China’s wheat output could drop as much as 20 per cent this crop year after bad weather hit fields in major growing areas, likely boosting imports by the world’s top producer and consumer of the grain. Increased Chinese demand for wheat cargoes could pile more upward pressure on international prices for the commodity, which have already soared nearly 15 per cent since early April on worries over tight global supplies. The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre, a government think tank, earlier this month estimated that China’s wheat output would drop 3 million tonnes in the 2018/19 season from the year before to 126.73 million tonnes.

Australia exported 1.39 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat in April, down 5 per cent from 1.46Mt in March. The April figure is made up of 136,654 tonnes of containerised wheat and 1.26Mt of bulk wheat, both down from the corresponding March-shipment figures. In the bulk market, Indonesia followed by The Philippines remained Australia’s two largest customers by volume in April with 261,447t and 156,903t respectively. Durum cargoes to Nigeria which totalled 104,400t made the North African nation Australia’s third-biggest bulk market for the month. In containerised exports, Vietnam followed by Taiwan and Myanmar were Australia’s largest markets by volume in April.

June 19, 2018, GASC will hold a milling wheat tender for delivery on August 1 – 10, 2018. In the last tender on June 12, 2018, Egypt purchased 420 KMT of milling wheat from Russia and Romania to be delivered on July 15 – 25, 2018 at an average price of USD 224.44/MT C&F.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has raised its forecast for global wheat prices in 2018-19 to $243 per tn from $234 projected in March. The forecast is 6% higher than the average of $230 per tn in 2017-18. Wheat prices are seen rising in light of a decline in production in major exporting countries and expectations of stronger demand for human consumption. The agency has estimated global wheat output in 2018-19 at 743 mln tn, down 1.9% from a record high crop last year. The most significant fall in production comes from the Black Sea region, comprising Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, where output is seen falling to 114 mln tn from 127 mln a year ago. Wheat output in the European Union is also seen 1% lower on year at 150 mln tn. For India, the agency estimates production at 93.5 mln tn, down from 98.5 mln a year ago. While output is likely to fall, global consumption of the grain is seen rising to 748 mln tn in 2018-19 from 740 mln a year ago.

South Korea announced on June 18 that it has suspended imports of wheat and flour from Canada after Canadian officials revealed last week the discovery of genetically modified wheat in southern Alberta. This follows Japan’s announcement on June 15 that it has suspended its tenders and sales of wheat from Canada. The CFIA noted that no evidence was present to suggest that the GM wheat was present anywhere other than the isolated site where it was discovered. In addition, Health Canada has concluded that the finding does not pose a food safety risk. Canada is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters and is South Korea’s No. 3 wheat supplier after the U.S. and Australia. Japan imported 1.4 million tonnes of wheat from Canada last year and 1.6 million tonnes the year before. In 2016, Japan and South Korea temporarily suspended U.S. wheat imports after a similar GM wheat finding.

Harvesting is already in progress in five regions of Ukraine: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kherson. As a reminder, this year’s harvesting started 10 days earlier than last year and 17 days earlier than in 2016. Ukraine harvesting progress as on 18th June is 10 KMT winter wheat with yield 2.62 MT/ha.

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy 91,188 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Australia in a regular tender.

Kazakhstan is seeking to switch some acreage from wheat to oilseeds including soybeans as well as pulses. The IGC has forecast Kazakhstan’s wheat production will fall to 13.7 million tonnes in 2018/19 from 14.8 million in 2017/18 and 15.0 million in 2016/17.

EU wheat extends fall with Chicago to four-week low.

NCDEX wheat up nearly 1% as spot market arrivals fall on 18 June.

Source says govt June 1 India wheat inventory up 31% on year at 43.8 MMT.

India denies US allegations of underreporting MSP.

Japan bans Canadian wheat after some GMO grain found.

Iraq buys 1.75 MMT of local wheat so far this season.

Uttar Pradesh government set to procure record amount of wheat in 2018-19.

Trade bullish on Indian wheat prices on robust procurement, smaller crop.

Uttar Pradesh govt advises agencies to limit daily wheat procurement.

U.S. grain buyers grab for high-protein wheat, boosting cash prices.

India wheat futures shed 2.32% on ample stocks.

U.S. winter wheat production forecast raised 1% from May.