CANADA MONTHLY OUTLOOK Sunflower Seed For 2017-18
Ram Gopal Yadav (9 years ago)

Production is estimated to be relatively unchanged at 52 kt as lower harvested area is offset by higher yields. However, compared to 2016-17, supply is expected to increase by 11% to 117 kt due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar the previous year and carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The US is expected to remain Canada’s main export market for sunflower seed. The average price is forecast to be higher than 2016-17 due to lower North American supplies. US sunflower seed production for 2017-18 is forecast by the USDA at just over 0.8 Mt, down sharply from 2016-17, and largely due to lower roduction in North Dakota. Production of oil type varieties is estimated to have fallen to 0.7 Mt and the production of confectionery type varieties is estimated to have decreased to 0.1 Mt. Total supply in the US supply is expected to decrease by nearly 20% to 1.2 Mt. Domestic use is estimated to decrease and exports are expected to fall marginally. As a result, US sunflower seed carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply and be supportive for North American prices. The world supply of sunflower seed for 2017-18 is estimated by the USDA at 50.8 Mt. This is marginally lower than last year, due to lower production in Ukraine. World domestic use is expected to decrease and world exports are forecast to fall sharply. World carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to 2.2 Mt, well below the five-year average.

CANADA MONTHLY OUTLOOK Mustard Seed For 2017-18
Ram Gopal Yadav (9 years ago)

Production is estimated to have fallen sharply to 115 kt due to lower area seeded and yields. Production of each of the three major types of mustard (yellow, brown and oriental) is expected to decrease. However, total supply is forecast to fall by only 18% due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be similar to last year at 125 kt and, as of August and September, the US and the EU are the top two markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall and, as a result, the average price is forecast to be sharply higher than in 2016-17

CANADA MONTHLY OUTLOOK Soybeans For 2017-18
Ram Gopal Yadav (9 years ago)

Production is estimated at a record 8.3 Mt, up 27% from last year’s record of 6.6 Mt. The increase is largely due to the sharp increase in harvested area, to 2.93 Mha, more than 0.71 Mha higher than last year. About 64% of Canada’s soybeans are expected to be grown in Eastern Canada and 36% in Western Canada. Soybean yields are estimated at 2.84 t/ha compared to 2.97 t/ha for 2016-17. Total supply is forecast to increase by 20% from last year to 8.9 Mt due to the sharp rise in output which more-than offsets the minor decrease in carry-in stocks and imports. The forecast for domestic crush has been lowered by 0.1 Mt, from last month, to 1.8 Mt. This is marginally lower than last year and below the record set in 2015-16. The revised crush forecast is supported by the slowdown in the crush pace. Canadian oilseed processors are operating at 56% capacity for the year to-date compared to 62% last year at this time. Exports are forecast to rise sharply to a record of 6.1 Mt versus 4.5 Mt in 2016-17 and the five-year average of 3.8 Mt. Soybeans are forecast to be the third largest crop exported from Canada after wheat ex-durum and canola with buyers widely dispersed by country. Compared to last year, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise significantly with most of it in commercial stocks. Soybean prices are forecast to decrease from last year to a range $400 to $440/t. The price outlook has been pressured by lower US farmgate prices in the soybean complex and the stronger Canadian dollar. The main factors to watch are: (1) harvest progress in Eastern Canada, (2) Canadian crush and export pace, US export inspection pace, (4) US harvest progress, (4) South American planting pace, and the strength of Chinese buying.

India Edible Oil futures hit upper cap as govt raises import duty.
Ram Gopal Yadav (9 years ago)

Futures contracts of all constituents in the edible oil complex hit their upper circuits on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India after the government raised the import duty. Crude palm oil contract on the MCX hit 4% upper circuit as the government raised the duty of the crude and refined palm oil. The most active December futures of soybean on the NCDEX hit a 3% upper limit. Refined soyoil contracts also hit a one week high of 698.95 rupees per 10 kg. Mustard seed futures also ended higher because of import duty rise.

Nebraska Department of Agriculture Announces Soybean Agreement with Bulgaria.
Ram Gopal Yadav (9 years ago)

The Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) has signed letters of intent with nine soybean processing companies in Bulgaria. The agreement promote Nebraska soybeans and soybean products in their facilities. The companies want to maximize their output and are looking to source Nebraska and U.S. soybeans. They use about 2 million metric tons of soybeans per year. They have a total production capacity of 2.7 million metric tons.